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General Market Analysis
  • Health Care Sector Momentum Carried into First Week of January  

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 10 Jan 2018
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Health Care Sector Momentum Carried into First Week of January
    • Singapore’s 10 largest capitalised Health Care stocks have averaged 3.3% price gains for the first five sessions of 2018, following on from average 13.2% gains in 2017. On a market-capitalisation weighted basis, Health Care was the strongest of the Sectors in the last month of 2017.
    • Amongst these 10 stocks, Top Glove Corp Bhd, Q&M Dental Group Singapore and Tianjin Zhong Xin Pharmaceutical have performed the strongest over the past five sessions, averaging 8.3% gains. On 19 Dec, Top Glove Corp Bhd reported 44% YoY growth in Net Profit for its 1QFY18 (ending 30 Nov).
    • Clearbridge Health which focuses on precision medicine in Asia, in addition to providing laboratory and Health Care services, listed on 18 December. Its stock price closed yesterday at 46.5 cents, which was two-thirds higher than the IPO price of 28 cents.
  • 82 Companies Bought Back S$425M in Shares in 2017

    Source: SGX MY Gateway
    Date Submitted: 10 Jan 2018
    Views: 25
    Downloads: 1
    82 Companies Bought Back S$425M in Shares in 2017
    • In 2017, 82 SGX-listed companies conducted share buybacks, with a total consideration of S$425 million. This was just over half the S$826 million in consideration for 2016, coinciding with comparatively stronger STI price gains of 18.1% in 2017.  
    • OCBC buybacks accounted for 52% of the S$425 million consideration, with Keppel Corporation, Silverlake Axis, Yanlord Land Group, ST Engineering and SIA Engineering the next highest ranking by consideration.
    • For the month of Dec 2017, there were a total of 28.3 million shares repurchased by 27 companies, with a total consideration of S$42.9 million. Buyback consideration was up 9% from the S$39.4 million reported for Nov 2017 and up more than fourfold from Dec 2016. 
  • 《中国消费金融市场洞察》

    Source: CFA上海研究众筹项目组,包括组长张曙光,CFA,研究组成员:陈琰,CFA、顾远,CFA、李晨,CFA,王映人,CFA,应宜,CFA和赵阳,CFA
    Date Submitted: 08 Jan 2018
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0

    中国的消费金融市场在经历了多年的萌芽期后,随着互联网金融、电子商务的迅猛发展,目前正处于市场爆发期,并快速渗透到社会的各行各业,并且也受到了众多投资机构的高度关注。在这样的背景下,我们开展了针对于此市场的行业研究,希望探讨行业发展趋势,为行业企业提出发展建议,帮助投资者研判投资趋势。

     

    引言及第一章明确了消费金融的定义及本文的研究范围,剖析了消费者的消费金融行为。消费金融行为的本质是消费者付出一定的财务成本去改变特定期限内的可支配资金流以匹配其消费需求。消费金融目标客户是那些有消费需求且缺乏流动性,愿意提前消费并有充足还款能力的消费者。

     

    第二章回顾了中国消费金融行业发展的历程以及相关政策的演变史,同时也对比了美国、欧洲和日本三个国外地区的行业发展情况,为我们分析中国未来的行业走向提供借鉴。

     

    第三章围绕消费金融产业链,详细介绍了我国当前的行业发展现状,内容涵盖目前市场上存在的不同类型的消费金融公司,包括银行、持牌消费金融公司、互联网巨头、P2P、电商、创业企业及行业公司,以及各种消费金融场景和特别消费群体,包括汽车、旅游、医美、教育、农村、租房、家装、学生和蓝领。另外,我们统计了52家消费金融公司共356起融资事件,数据显示经纬中国,红杉资本,蓝驰创投,源码资本和顺为资本是中国消费金融市场上最为活跃的投资机构,而且他们在布局细分市场时往往选择一到两家潜力企业进行多轮投资,重点扶持。

     

    第四章从行业宏观环境、各类消费金融公司和各个消费场景等三个方面探讨了我国消费金融行业未来的发展趋势。

    在宏观环境方面:

    • 中国消费金融行业还处于发展初期,未来市场潜力巨大;

    • 我国将形成具有中国特色的征信体系。未来中国的征信体系可能形成具有中国特色的双层结构:顶层是央行征信中心和政府主导设立的社会化征信联盟机构,下层是少数持牌的第三方征信公司,向全社会提供具体的数据产品和服务;

    • 行业风险控制日益加强,违约率计算规则亟待统一。我们也提出了一种时间加权的违约率的计算方法,方便企业、消费者、投资者和监管层判断和监测风险。这种计算方法标准清晰、客观、可比性强;受期末余额大幅变化的影响降低;另外,违约率的分级(根据违约贷款的违约期限分为逾期率1M,逾期率3M和坏账率)便于考察消费金融公司的违约贷款构成。

     

    在消费金融公司方面:

    • 全国性银行深挖存量客户的消费贷款需求,地方性银行积极寻求跨地域消费信贷牌照;

    • 持牌消费金融公司牌照优势逐步显现,行业整体份额提高;

    • 互联网巨头(BATJ)通过对各消费场景的技术输出与企业合作来进行布局;

    • P2P公司将在资金成本和获客方面需求突破转型;

    • 消费分期将成为电商标配,但主要是由第三方提供消费分期;

     

    在消费场景方面:

    • 汽车:二手车正成为汽车消费金融的下一个热点;

    • 旅游:旅游消费分期行业进入门槛高,具有行业背景的持牌消费金融公司或成为龙头;

    • 医美:医美消费分期市场潜力巨大,格局未定,综合运营和数据技术能力是竞争优势的核心;

    • 教育:教育市场本身体量巨大但分散,将主要由第三方消费金融公司提供分期服务;

    • 农村:农村分期市场作为最大最深的普惠金融市场,是一片待开垦的蓝海;

    • 租房:租房中介公司将继续扮演租房分期产业链中的核心角色;

    • 家装:家装分期市场仍是以银行和持牌消费金融公司为主;

    • 学生:学生分期市场将长期保持高准入门槛,银行与持牌消费金融公司成为主要市场参与者;

    • 蓝领:蓝领细分市场长期会回归到各具体的消费场景中。

  • Venture Corporation Scheduled to Join STI on 5 January

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 03 Jan 2018
    Views: 117
    Downloads: 3
    Venture Corporation Scheduled to Join STI on 5 January
    • Venture Corporation is expected to join the STI effective Friday 5 Jan, with the last trading day of existing STI constituent, Global Logistic Properties, expected to be 4 Jan. Venture was selected as it maintained the highest market capitalisation of the STI Reserve on the 2 Jan close. 
    • Venture generated a 115.4% total return in 2017, with institutional net buying totaling S$133 million. The leading global provider of technology services, products and solutions reported its net profit grew 81.4% YoY for its 9MFY17 ending 30 Sep.          
    • Venture is expected to make up between 1.5% and 2.0% weightage in the STI, based on public free-float information and STI weights as of 29 Sep 2017. The IT Sector will then be represented within the STI and the Real Estate Sector is expected to reduce its weightage in the STI by 3.0% to 15.6%.  
  • Making the Case for International Small Caps

    Source: Michael Orzano, John Welling
    Date Submitted: 03 Jan 2018
    Views: 25
    Downloads: 2
    International small caps represent a meaningful portion of the global equity opportunity set, have historically generated strong absolute and risk-adjusted returns, have been less volatile than U.S. small caps, and have relatively low correlations to U.S. equities and other asset classes.
  • Asian High Yield Outlook: 8 Themes for 2018

    Source: Sandra Chow, CFA, Cheong Yin Chin, CFA, Lakshmanan R
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2017
    Views: 32
    Downloads: 0
    • Asian high yield is too expensive" lament many investors we meet. We agree. We propose a more defensive strategy next year. Current Asian high yield spreads offer little compensation for the incremental credit risk compared to investment grade, or to US high yield. We suggest a 'barbell' approach in terms of credit quality: combining a core portfolio of defensive names with a few higher-beta credits to boost returns. 
    • Credit quality is generally improving or stable among the names we cover.  But this does not justify the extent of the Asian high yield rally. Technical factors - the imbalance between demand (large inflows into emerging markets and the fabled 'Chinese onshore bid') and supply (at record levels, but still not enough to dent demand) - have been the key reason.  As supply risk increases, we are concerned that the balance will tip away from the market's favour. 
    • We highlight 8 themes that could drive the Asian high yield markets next year.  These include: 1) the effect of China's regulators and China's domestic bond markets on offshore bond supply; 2) LGFV issuance and maturity walls; 3) China's capacity cuts and their impact on commodity prices; 4) Asian high yield bond supply risk; 5) China's property market slowdown; 6) few distressed opportunities; 7) the reach for yield into frontier markets and riskier credits; 8) Fed surprise risk.  
  • SGX’s Indonesia-Focused Coal Plays Average 50.7% Gain YTD

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2017
    Views: 23
    Downloads: 0
    SGX’s Indonesia-Focused Coal Plays Average 50.7% Gain YTD
    • SGX’s three Indonesia-focused coal miners – Golden Energy and Resources, Geo Energy Resources and BlackGold Natural Resources – have averaged a price gain of 50.7% in the 2017 YTD, as Indonesia’s benchmark coal price surged to a 10-month high.
    • In October, Indonesia's reference coal price, known as Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), jumped 2.1% month-on-month to US$93.99 per metric tonne, after soaring 9.6% month-on-month in September, according to data from the country's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. HBA is now at its highest since December 2016. 
    • Coal is expected to remain a vital source in meeting Indonesia's growing domestic electrification needs. In 2015, Indonesian President Widodo unveiled an ambitious 35,000 MW program to boost the country's electrification ratio to 97% by 2019, with about 25,000 MW of capacity expected to come from coal-fired power plants.
  • Oil & Maritime Indices Veered on Global Growth

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2017
    Views: 191
    Downloads: 4
    Oil & Maritime Indices Veered on Global Growth
    • Two key factors currently driving the price of oil price include an upcoming decision by OPEC on whether to extend production cuts (30 Nov), in addition to continued production growth of shale in the US.
    • While price of WTI Crude Oil rallied +38% from 21 June to 8 Nov, this was largely a price recovery with the current price +3% higher than its end of 2016 level. This has coincided with downstream plays, more sensitive to global growth and trade, outperforming the oil & gas upstream plays.
    • Since 30 June, the more-downstream SGX Maritime Index has gained +24%, led by performances of Cosco Shipping International (+110.9%) and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+42.0%), whilst the more-upstream SGX Oil & Gas Index generated a marginal gain.
  • Longer Term Drivers of SGX Agricultural Plays

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Longer Term Drivers of SGX Agricultural Plays
    • SGX lists eight Agricultural Products stocks with a combined market capitalisation of S$29 billion. In the 2017 YTD, these stocks averaged a -13.7% price change, compared to +16.7% in 2016. Global Palm Resources Holdings, which registered a price change of +15.4% in the YTD, was the best-performing stock in the sector.
    • Zion Market Research has forecast the global palm oil market to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% between 2016 and 2021. Growth drivers include higher living standards, changing eating habits, growing demand for vegetable oil as a feedstock for biodiesel production as well as low prices compared to soybean and other vegetable oils.
    • Palm oil prices for the rest of 2017 are projected to remain firm, given the seasonally strong fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. A further boost could come from weaker-than-expected output, as well as an anticipated cut in Europe's import tariffs for Indonesia's biodiesel.
  • Highlights of Gold Opportunities on SGX

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2017
    Views: 20
    Downloads: 0
    Highlights of Gold Opportunities on SGX
    • SGX offers investors opportunities to participate in the gold sector through three mining stocks – Wilton Resources, CNMC Goldmine and Anchor Resources – and one Exchange Traded Fund, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF.
    • Spot gold has fallen over 4% since hitting a one-year high of US$1,349.22 on 7 September 2017, which reduces its YTD gain to 12%. Bullion's performance has been impacted by flagging investor interest after the recent surge in US equity markets, the focus on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and as central banks began paring their stimulus policies.
    • The World Gold Council has consistently flagged the diversification role of gold, noting that the commodity fulfils a classic role as a haven asset. A key motivation for including bullion in a portfolio has been the metal’s history of maintaining low correlations to most other asset classes, which helps to reduce overall portfolio risk.
  • Carbon Pricing: The Business Case for Low-Carbon Innovation

    Source: Rochelle March
    Date Submitted: 22 Dec 2017
    Views: 3
    Downloads: 0
    The belief that economic growth is possible without lowering carbon emissions is becoming harder to sell by the minute.
  • Equity Note on Saif Powertec Limited

    Source: MD. Mosavvir Al Ashick
    Date Submitted: 18 Dec 2017
    Views: 68
    Downloads: 10
    Saif Powertec Limited is a berth/terminal operator of Chittagong Container  Terminal  and  New Mooring  Container  terminal  of Chittagong Port Authority. Saif  Powertec  is  an  infrastructure  support  services provider.  Saif  Powertec  is  also  engaged  in  importing,  trading, assembling,  and  installing  generators,  sub-stations,  electrical equipment and gridlines and installation and erection of power plants. In addition, it sells and services construction equipment.
  • Do Investors Price Accruals Quality? A Reexamination in the Implied Cost of Equity Capital

    Source: Lee-Seok Hwang, Seung-Yeon Lim
    Date Submitted: 20 Aug 2012
    Views: 4
    Downloads: 0
    This study investigates whether accruals quality (AQ) influences the expected returns of stock investors. We employ estimates of the implied cost of equity capital (ICOE) as the expected returns of stock investors because they are well specified ex ante without the need for noisy realized returns. Extending a current debate on AQ pricing, we control for several properties of analysts’ forecasts and find that AQ is positively and significantly related to ICOE.
  • Relationship between Executive Stock Option Exercises and Earnings Management

    Source: Kyung Tae Lee, Sang Cheol Lee, Suhyeun Choi
    Date Submitted: 06 Dec 2011
    Views: 18
    Downloads: 0
    In this study we examine whether executives manage accounting earnings to maximize their own gains around stock option exercises. In particular, this study analyzes the effects of two factors, the value of exercised executive stock options and the change in the value of exercised executive stock options for a 1% change in the underlying stock price on the propensity of managers to engage in earnings management.
  • Pyramidal Structures and Competitive Strategies of Business Groups

    Source: Jung Bum Wee
    Date Submitted: 06 Dec 2011
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    A theoretical model is built to explore the organizational form of a diversified conglomerate, which depends on the competitive structure of the product market. The conglomerate may choose the form of either a business group, which consists of plural legally independent firms, or a multi-division firm. The analysis shows that, because of larger outside financing capacity, a business group generally needs less internal capital and invests more than a multi-division firm.
  • Bank Loans, Trade Credits, and Borrower Characteristics: Theory and Empirical Analysis

    Source: Byung-Uk Chong, Ha-Chin Yi
    Date Submitted: 15 Feb 2011
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Trade credit is vendor financing offered by a supplier to increase the sale of its product. Trade credit prevails among riskier borrowers, in competing with bank loans in the corporate loan market. The present paper models the economic incentive for product suppliers to extend trade credits to relatively riskier borrowing firms that might not be able to obtain financing from commercial banks.
  • Reporting Bias and Information Discrepancy, and Consequences for Volatility in Financial Markets

    Source: Jae Joon Han
    Date Submitted: 28 Sep 2010
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    This paper presents an analytical explanation of price volatility and mispricing in a rational financial market. In the proposed model, specialists might have private interest in manipulating their reports, which can affect the security price. Additionally, traders differ in terms of both rationality and available information. The present study shows that mispricing and price volatility occurs in a rational financial market when specialist reports are incorporated under different trader types.
  • Pricing of Private Placements of Equity

    Source: Jaiho Chung, Joon Ho Hwang
    Date Submitted: 10 Feb 2010
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Building on the models of Benveniste & Spindt (1989) and Maksimovic & Pichler (2006), the present paper examines the optimal pricing and allocation mechanism for private placements of equity. Our model shows that for firms that receive favorable information prior to private placements, both the information acquisition cost and the value of information affect the offer discount.
  • Performance of Capital Markets in India Since Demonetization

    Source: Ved Malla
    Date Submitted: 15 Dec 2017
    Views: 45
    Downloads: 0
    Wherever the debate on demonetization goes, it’s easy to see that capital markets in India have been on a roll over the past year and have given exponential returns across size, segments, and sectors.
  • Asian Fixed Income: China Was The Worst-Performing Country In The Pan Asian Bond Market

    Source: Michele Leung
    Date Submitted: 12 Dec 2017
    Views: 25
    Downloads: 0
    China’s lackluster performance has made it the worst-performing country in the Pan Asian bond market this year. 
  • A Comparative Analysis on Listed IT Companies of Bangladesh

    Source: Asaduzzaman Ashik
    Date Submitted: 09 Dec 2017
    Views: 70
    Downloads: 12
    IT Industry has been professed as a thrust sector assessing the ability and interests of young populace of the country. In Bangladesh, there are more than 100 software houses, 35 data entry centers, thousands of formal and informal IT Training centers and numerous computer workshops. VAT  has  been  withdrawn  from  locally  developed  Software,  Digital  Data  Network has  been  introduced,  and  VSAT  is deregulated in Bangladesh. Some remarkable events are going on in every sector covering E -commerce, E-governance, Computer Networking, Internet, Web Browsing, Web Applications, Multimedia Product Development and others.

     
  • Does Value Enhance Quality Investing in China's A-Share Market?

    Source: Liyu Zeng
    Date Submitted: 07 Dec 2017
    Views: 267
    Downloads: 0
    Quality investing has gained attraction in China, as high-quality stocks recorded remarkable performance in the first nine months of 2017.  As a result, the risk of paying too much for high-quality stocks has become a concern.  To address the issue, on Sept. 29, 2017 we launched the S&P China A-Share Quality Value Index, which is designed to measure the performance of the top 100 high-quality stocks with reasonable valuation, (see Exhibit 1).
  • Does Factor Investing Deserve More Attention in Hong Kong?

    Source: Priscilla Luk
    Date Submitted: 06 Dec 2017
    Views: 296
    Downloads: 0
    In the Asia Pacific region, factor-based ETPs only accounted for 4.3% of regional ETP assets. The adoption of factor-based products by market participants in the Hong Kong market has been far behind other Asian markets such as Australia and Japan.
  • 【中国市场策略】2018年展望:无限风光

    Source: Hong Hao, CFA
    Date Submitted: 05 Dec 2017
    Views: 97
    Downloads: 6
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 4 Dec 2017.
     
  • 【China Market Strategy】Outlook 2018: View from the Peak

    Source: Hong Hao, CFA
    Date Submitted: 05 Dec 2017
    Views: 381
    Downloads: 10
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 4 Dec 2017.
     
  • What Makes the Market Jump?

    Source: Marcel Prokopczuk, Chardin Wese Simen
    Date Submitted: 05 Dec 2017
    Views: 38
    Downloads: 1
    Using intraday transaction prices and a non-parametric jump test, we show that jumps in the S&P 500 and VIX are low-probability, high-impact events. Extant research investigating the causes of jumps primarily focuses on scheduled macro-announcements. However, we find that unscheduled
    news, which has so far received little attention, triggers twice as many jumps and accounts for a larger proportion of the jump variation than scheduled news. Intriguingly, we show that close to 50% of jumps are not explained by fundamental news, revealing the presence of “excess jumps” in financial markets.
  • Changing Landscapes in the Singapore Retail Property Market

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 04 Dec 2017
    Views: 337
    Downloads: 2
    Changing Landscapes in the Singapore Retail Property Market
    • Singapore retail space vacancy rose to 7.7% in 1Q17 despite a 2.9% QoQ decline in price rentals. However, impact of retail headwinds may not be evenly felt across all malls.
    • New supply of retail malls largely located in Outside Central Regions, in line with the government’s plan of decentralised business districts and growth of regional centres.
    • SGX lists 12 Retail REITs & Property Trusts which have retail properties within their asset portfolios with a combined market capitalisation of S$30.9 billion. These 12 trusts have generated a market cap weighted average total return of 16.2% in the YTD and have an average dividend yield of 6.1%.
  • Recent Trends & Moves in Singapore’s Hospitality Trusts

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 04 Dec 2017
    Views: 265
    Downloads: 5
    Recent Trends & Moves in Singapore’s Hospitality Trusts
    • Hotel RevPar in 2016 fell 4.7% YoY despite an increase of 7.7% in tourist arrivals, with a slower rate of decline since 2017. Hotel occupancy rates remain at an 8 year average of 86%.
    • New hotel room supply in 2017 stands at 3,400 rooms (URA 1Q17 data), 60% higher YoY, but supply is expected to ease in 2018 due to lack of supply of new land for hotel development.
    • SGX lists one Hospitality REIT and five Hospitality Stapled Trusts with a combined market capitalisation of S$9.1 billion. These six trusts have generated a market cap weighted average total return of 19.0% in the YTD and have an average dividend yield of 6.5%.
  • Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the Australian Stock Market

    Source: Ivan Indriawan
    Date Submitted: 30 Nov 2017
    Views: 32
    Downloads: 4

    In November 2011, an alternative trading venue, Chi-X, entered the Australian stock market and has since succeeded in capturing trading volume and market share from the ASX. In this study, I investigate market quality in the ASX and Chi-X during macroeconomic news announcements. I measure market quality in terms of liquidity, volatility, and price efficiency. Using the fifty largest Australian stocks, I document that on days with macroeconomic news announcements, market quality is generally higher in the ASX than in Chi-X.

  • The prevalence of global stock market inefficiencies gives rise to ample opportunities for stock picking

    Source: Chan Fook Leong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 19 Dec 2017
    Views: 882
    Downloads: 0
    Media Release

    The prevalence of global stock market inefficiencies gives rise to ample opportunities for stock picking
     
    • Active management can yield alpha from inefficiencies in global equity markets particularly in the Asia Pacific region and in emerging markets 
    • These opportunities to generate excess risk-adjusted returns are in spite of trading costs 
    • There is a positive relation between transaction costs including the presence of short selling restrictions and alpha
     
    By Chan Fook Leong, CFA, for Asia-Pacific Research Exchange (ARX)
     
    Singapore, November 14. Professor Söhnke M. Bartram from University of Warwick highlighted the prevalence of global stock market inefficiencies over a lunch-time talk to a full house of CFA charter holders in the FTSE Room on the 9th floor of Capital Tower, Singapore.

    When there are deviations from fair value, stock picking can yield alpha. The mispricing in equities is prevalent globally, particularly in the Asia Pacific region and in emerging markets as uncovered by Professor’s Bartram research project using point-in-time accounting data from more than 25,000 stocks from 36 countries over a period of more than two decades.

    He and joint researcher, Mark Grinblatt, showed that the risk-adjusted returns are significantly larger in emerging than developed markets, suggesting that emerging markets are less efficient at incorporating material public information.

    Potential profits are also larger in the Asia Pacific region. Equity markets in Asia Pacific, the region with the largest alpha, experiences 26-50 basis point additional alpha compared to the Americas even after factoring in differences in the state of economic development.  

    In their research, fair value is determined using replicating portfolios instead of the more conventional discounted cash flow model or the structural asset pricing model where assumptions such as terminal growth and discount rates need to be determined. The replicating portfolio method is a simplistic non-discretionary approach as it relies on less assumptions to arrive at the fair value of a stock. Using international accounting data which is readily available to investors, firms with the same accounting metrics should have identical fair values.

    The replicating portfolios assign monthly fair values to more than 25,000 firms from 36 countries from 1993 to 2016. Thereafter, ordinary least square regression methods are employed to determine the most under- and over-priced stocks. Professor Bartram found that mispricing is greater in emerging markets and in the Asia Pacific region.

    The proxy of trading costs in this research are costs typically incurred by institutional investors. The study also shows that constructing a long-short portfolio still yields positive alpha in spite of trading costs from fees, commissions, and market impact. Moreover, simple adaptations of strategies that reduce turnover such as buy-and-hold strategy can improve alpha in emerging markets.

    Transaction costs which include trading and compliance costs also predict potential profitability – there is a positive relation between such costs and alpha even after controlling for variables such as the quality of a country’s information environment, its level of economic and financial development, and its regulatory framework. This implies that a hypothetical country with zero transaction costs will be devoid of alpha.  

    The other determinant of the level of alpha is the presence of short selling restrictions and other characteristics that might curb arbitrage activities. Limiting arbitrage activities impede the process of stocks reverting to fair value which in turn gives rise to mis-priced stocks.

    Stock market inefficiencies leads to presence of higher alpha in emerging markets and the Asia Pacific region compared to other parts of the world. The former two market or region represent the amongst highest transaction costs including the presence of the prohibition of short selling relative to others, and thereby leading to higher alphas waiting to be realized from picking these severely mis-priced stocks. Best of luck.
     
     
    The full research report can be downloaded from the Asia-Pacific Research Exchange (ARX) website (https://www.arx.cfa)
     
     
  • Information Diffusion and Speed Competition

    Source: Junqing Kang,
    Date Submitted: 26 Nov 2017
    Views: 6
    Downloads: 1
    This paper examines the impact of increasing information transparency and strategic trading speed competition on market quality in a perfectly Bayesian equilibrium when information diffuses gradually. We develop a two-period Kyle model to incorporate information diffusion among fast, slow and less informed speculators. Fast information diffusion can not only weaken information asymmetry but also crowd out private information, while market quality depends on their trade-off. By characterizing and comparing the exogenous and endogenous information equilibria, we show that fast information diffusion and trading speed competition always improve market quality in the exogenous information equilibrium. However, in the endogenous information equilibrium, fast information diffusion can lead to an endogenous switching between competing and no-competing equilibria. The market quality is improved due to the dominance of the positive weakening effect in the non-competing equilibrium, but reduced due to the dominance of the amplified and negative crowding-out effect in the competing equilibrium. Therefore increasing information transparency and trading speed arms race may not always improve market quality; it can have unintended and even negative impact on market quality.
  • AFM - Implications of Buy-Side Analyst Participation in Public Earnings Conference Calls

    Source: Andy Call, Nate Sharp, Tom Shohfi
    Date Submitted: 26 Nov 2017
    Views: 20
    Downloads: 1
    The Q&A session of public earnings conference calls represents a unique opportunity for stakeholders to interact with senior management. We examine buy-side analysts’ participation on these calls and the associated capital-market implications. Using 81,000 transcripts for 3,300 companies from 2007 to 2016, we find that buy-side analysts ask questions on approximately 18% of calls. Management prioritizes buy-side analysts, but discriminates against analysts from hedge funds when short interest is high. Relative to sell-side analysts, buy-side analysts’ interactions with management are shorter and less favorable. Buy-side appearances are also associated with increases in information asymmetry and reductions in sell-side activity.
  • Equity Note on GPH Ispat Limited

    Source: Mohammad Rehan Kabir, Md. Nazmus Sakib
    Date Submitted: 23 Nov 2017
    Views: 65
    Downloads: 11
    GPH Ispat Limited is engaged in manufacturing and trading of iron products and steel materials of all kinds or other metallic or allied materials and marketing the same. GPH Ispat Limited was incorporated in May 17, 2006 and production commenced on 21st August, 2008. The Company produces two types of products mainly, M.S. Rod & M.S. Billet. Besides Miss Roll and Ovel, Steel Bim, Angle, Channel, Flat Bar etc. are also produced by GPH Ispat Limited.


     
  • Singapore Office Property Market Stabilising Despite Headwinds

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 20 Nov 2017
    Views: 424
    Downloads: 1
    Singapore Office Property Market Stabilising Despite Headwinds
    • 1Q17 office space vacancy rates peaked at 11.6%, highest in five years. Office rental rates continue to decline and Grade A office rents stabilising QoQ, indicating signs of stabilisation in office rental rates.
    • Office space supply is expected to peak in 2017 and taper off in the next few years. CBRE Research believes that sentiment has swung from pessimism to optimism as investors forecast a period of relatively modest supply over the next few years.
    • SGX lists six Office REITs (GICS®) with a combined market capitalisation of S$12.8 billion. These 6 trusts have generated a market cap weighted average total return of 16.9% in the YTD and have an average dividend yield of 5.7%.
  • Green Shoots Emerge Despite Challenging Industrial Property Market

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 20 Nov 2017
    Views: 78
    Downloads: 2
    Green Shoots Emerge Despite Challenging Industrial Property Market
    • Singapore’s industrial property market remains challenging as industrial space supply is expected to peak in 2017, before tapering off in the next few years.
    • Green shoots in manufacturing activity data, and the Singapore government’s economic shift, coupled with its focus on higher value-added businesses, bode well for industrial property demand.
    • SGX lists 11 REITs & Property Trusts which have industrial properties within their asset portfolios. These 11 trusts have generated an average year-to-date total return of 19.0%.
  • AFM - Smart Beta, Smart Money

    Source: Yeguang Chi, Qinhua Chen
    Date Submitted: 17 Nov 2017
    Views: 123
    Downloads: 10
    AFM - Smart Beta, Smart Money
     
  • Machine Learning – A Simple Example for Stock Market Prediction

    Source: HC SHU, Jaccob Thomas
    Date Submitted: 16 Nov 2017
    Views: 71
    Downloads: 4
    http://mympcapital.blogspot.my/2017/11/machine-learning-simple-example-for.html
  • Equity Valuation Report-Square  Pharmaceuticals  Limited

    Source: Md. Mosavvir Al Ashick
    Date Submitted: 16 Nov 2017
    Views: 112
    Downloads: 26
    Square Pharmaceuticals Limited is the largest pharmaceuticals company in Bangladesh securing 17.73% market shares. The company manufactures and distributes pharmaceuticals drugs, medicine, basic chemicals, animal health product, agrovet and pesticide products.Square Pharma holds 58.78% market share in the top two therapeutic segments of Pharma Market that accounts for 52.77% of total Pharma Market in Bangladesh.
     
  • Different Faces of Understanding S&P BSE Sensex using valuation measures

    Source: Apoorva Ramani
    Date Submitted: 13 Nov 2017
    Views: 77
    Downloads: 10
    In India, investors often use to the BSE Sensex index to keep a track of market valuations. Most investors interpret the movement of Sensex in different ways using valuation measures. Price to earnings (P/E) and Price to book value (P/B) ratios are predominantly used to analyse the Sensex movement. When these ratios are used they in fact convey different stories about S&P BSE Sensex. These ratios help the investor to understand whether the market is undervalued or overvalued. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the ratio of Market price of the stock to its Earnings per share (EPS). A high price to earnings ratio indicate that the investors are expecting high earnings growth in the future when compared to low P/E. The price to book value ratio is used to compare a stocks market value to book value. A low P/B ratio could indicate that the market/stock is undervalued. The growth of the equity market in India has been phenomenal in the present decade. Right from early nineties, the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. One can identify and understand all the booms and busts of the equity market from the Sensex market. It has indeed emerged itself as one of the most prominent brands in the country.         
     
  • Decoding disinflation: principal contradiction, social progress and market fragility

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 13 Nov 2017
    Views: 641
    Downloads: 7
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 14 Nov 2017.
     
  • Singapore Private Property Market Shows Signs of Stabilising

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 13 Nov 2017
    Views: 321
    Downloads: 4
    Singapore Private Property Market Shows Signs of Stabilising
    • Singapore’s private property market appears to be stabilising as URA’s 2Q17 flash estimates show smallest QoQ price decline of private residential property prices since 4Q13. YTD average monthly primary private home sales volumes are also 74.6% higher YoY.
    • Existing property cooling measures are likely to remain despite recent calibrated adjustments. In the medium term, MAS believes that Singapore’s property prices should be aligned with broader income trends in the local economy.
    • SGX lists six Real Estate Management & Development (GICS®) stocks with market capitalisation above S$1 billion that have substantial exposure to the Singapore property market. These six companies have an average total return of 29.2% in the year thus far.
  • SGX Real Estate Index Returned 19.5% YTD on Positive Indicators

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 13 Nov 2017
    Views: 69
    Downloads: 1
    SGX Real Estate Index Returned 19.5% YTD on Positive Indicators
    • The SGX Real Estate Index, a benchmark for Singapore’s Real Estate Sector, has returned 19.5% in the YTD. Domestic private home prices have shown signs of stabilisation in recent months, with a pick-up in primary transaction volumes.
    • There are 104 Real Estate companies (diverse across assets) with a combined market capitalisation of almost S$190 billion listed on the SGX. Some key drivers for the sector include population growth, government cooling measures, land supply and interest rates.
    • Post the YTD rally, sector valuations remain below their long-term historical average. Singapore property developer stocks are trading at PB ratio of 0.75x vs their long-term average of 0.83x.
  • SPIVA Japan Mid-Year 2017 Scorecard

    Source: Priscilla Luk
    Date Submitted: 10 Nov 2017
    Views: 44
    Downloads: 1
    The SPIVA Japan Scorecard reports on the performance of actively managed Japanese mutual funds against their respective benchmark indices over 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year investment horizons.
  • 10 Biggest US Exposure Plays Generated 35.6% YTD Weighted Returns

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2017
    Views: 37
    Downloads: 0
    10 Biggest US Exposure Plays Generated 35.6% YTD Weighted Returns
    • US 3Q GDP will be released on Oct 27 (Fri). Focus will be on economic impact from hurricane Harvey and Irma, President Trump’s push for US tax reforms and decision on the Federal Reserve Chair replacement.
    • The 10 largest capitalized stocks with at least 20% of their revenue from US have averaged a market capitalisation-weighted total return of 35.6% in the year to date. This compares with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index’s 13.2% and 9.2% respectively in SGD terms.
    • The six non-inverse US equity ETFs listed on SGX have averaged a total return of 12.5% in the year thus far. There are 10 US ETFs listed on SGX. Seven track equity indices (including one S&P 500 Inverse Daily (-1x), two fixed-income assets, and one that tracks the money market.
  • S-REITs in a Rising Interest Rate Environment

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2017
    Views: 72
    Downloads: 3
    S-REITs in a Rising Interest Rate Environment
    • In the year-to-date, the SGX S-REIT Index has generated a 15.5% price gain and 21.2% total return (inclusive of dividends), compared to the benchmark STI’s 15.6% price gain and 19.0% total return. Singapore’s 3-month SIBOR has gained 16.2% in the same period.
    • In theory, a rise in interest rates will lead to an increase in borrowing costs, which impacts the profitability of REITs and their ability to make acquisitions. However, gradual rate increases are also often associated with improving economic growth, which indirectly boosts REITs’ earnings.
    • The SGX S-REIT Index maintains a median gearing ratio of 34.0%, below the 45.0% limit. In terms of valuation, yield spreads between S-REITs and 10-year government bonds are at 385bps, 39bps above the long term average of 346bps.
  • 20 Largest China Plays Returned 27% in the YTD

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 05 Nov 2017
    Views: 82
    Downloads: 5
    20 Largest China Plays Returned 27% in the YTD
    • China’s 2017 GDP forecast was revised higher to 6.7% QoQ. Some of China’s growth drivers for the economy include its OBOR Initiative, supply-side structural reform, SOEs reform, growing middle-income class and domestic consumption, and the “Made in China 2025” new economy programme.
    • Close to a quarter (or 180) of SGX-listed companies generate at least 20% of their revenue from China and 80% of these companies derive half or more of their revenue from China. These companies provide investors with revenue exposure to China’s growth story.
    • Of the 20 largest capitalised stocks with at least 50% of their revenue generated from China, 16 saw positive YTD price returns. The five best performing stocks were Hi-P Intl (+165.7%), Elec & Eltek Intl Co (+66.4%), China Sunsine Chem Hldgs (+59.0%), Global Logistic Properties (+49.1%) and Yanlord Land Group (+25.0%).
  • FTSE ST China Index up 18% in 2017 YTD

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 05 Nov 2017
    Views: 61
    Downloads: 2
    FTSE ST China Index up 18% in 2017 YTD
    • In the 2017 YTD, Singapore’s FTSE ST China Index has generated a total return of 17.9%, compared to a 14.9% return for the H-share Index in SGD terms.
    • The FTSE ST China Index consists of FTSE ST All-Share Index constituents that report either at least half of their sales revenues from Mainland China, or report at least half of their operating assets in Mainland China.
    • CWT, Hi-P International, Valuetronics Holdings and Geo Energy Resources will join the FTSE ST China Index on 18 September. This will take the number of constituents in the Index to 21. There are no Index exclusions following the recent review.
    • These four pending FTSE ST China Index entrants have generated average price gains of 72% in the 2017 YTD, ranging from a 8.9% gain for Geo Energy Resources to a 172.6% gain for Hi-P International.
  • 周期三因子模型及资产配置

    Source: 林晓明,华泰证券首席金融工程分析师
    Date Submitted: 02 Nov 2017
    Views: 61
    Downloads: 1
    在2017年10月18日由CFA中国上海主办的量化金融分会中,来自华泰证券首席金融工程分析师林晓明先生在主题为“A股金融工程卖方学术研究漫谈”的圆桌论坛中分享了其对“周期三因子模型及资产配置”的研究。
     
    林晓明先生主要分享的是其团队在过去一年中关于整个市场周期的研究。这个研究讲的是,如果想做一个自上而下的研究,能不能找到一个框架,把所有相关的宏观变量和资产价格拉到一个统一的框架里面进行建模。

    林晓明先后从对全球/中国市场的周期三因子回测、股市与宏观经济关系、全球股票市场周期、统一周期假设、空间谱估计-2、中国和全球市场共同周期的实证检验、周期三因子资 产定价方程这几个方面阐述了他的观点。
  • China-Focused Materials Stocks Led Sector’s YTD Gains

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 01 Nov 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    China-Focused Materials Stocks Led Sector’s YTD Gains
    • The Materials Sector has been Singapore’s second best performing Sector in the 2017 YTD with a market capitalisation-weighted average price gain of 31%. This compared to a 10% gain for the MSCI World Materials Index.
       
    • The YTD median gain of Singapore’s 10 largest capitalised Materials stocks was 5%, with a much higher average gain of 54%. Meanwhile, Singapore’s 10 largest capitalised Materials stocks that report the majority of their revenue to China generated a YTD median gain of 44% and average gain of 87%.
       
    • As many as seven of Singapore’s 10 largest capitalised Materials stocks with a China revenue focus reported 1HFY17 net profit growth. This ranged from +414% YoY net profit growth for Jiutian Chemical Group to +37.7% YoY net profit growth for Tat Seng Packaging Group.
  • ASEAN Plays Poised to Gain from China's Belt & Road Initiative (OBOR)

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 30 Oct 2017
    Views: 613
    Downloads: 24
    ASEAN Plays Poised to Gain from China's Belt & Road Initiative (OBOR)
    • With its geographical proximity and relatively low risk profile, ASEAN is expected to be a key beneficiary and bridgehead of OBOR as it sees more infrastructure developments and improvements, as well as increased trade and regional connectivity in the region.
    • Singapore, being a member state of ASEAN, has significant roles to play in the OBOR initiative through its status as a financial hub. In addition, Singapore has established industries with the expertise to drive and support infrastructure development for OBOR in ASEAN.
    • SGX lists 192 stocks (c.25%) with at least 20% of their revenue generated from ASEAN across the GICS® Industrials, Materials, and Utilities Sectors. Of the 20 largest capitalised stocks, 13 saw positive YTD price returns. The five best-performing stocks were Jardine Strategic (+25.5%), Straits Trading (+25.1%), Riverstone Holdings (+18.7%), SBS Transit (+17.9%) and Keppel Infrastructure Trust (+16.8%).
  • SGX: China Environmental Plays in Spotlight as China Goes Green

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 30 Oct 2017
    Views: 621
    Downloads: 17
    SGX: China Environmental Plays in Spotlight as China Goes Green
    • Environmental protection and pollution control are becoming increasingly important in China’s policies, as the country strives to develop an ecological civilisation. During its journey to become a green economy, businesses with a focus on environmental utilities in China will likely play important roles.
    • The Chinese government has stepped up efforts to boost environmental protection in recent years, launching several initiatives to promote a greener and cleaner economy, investing in renewable projects and increasing enforcement on pollution domestically.
    • SGX has a cluster of 15 China environmental stocks with a combined market capitalisation of S$5.8 billion. The five biggest China environmental plays are CITIC Envirotech, SIIC Environment, China Everbright Water, China Jinjiang Environment and Sunpower Group.
  • Jollibee Foods Corp. : The Champ of Fast Food

    Source: Louis Banzon
    Date Submitted: 18 Oct 2017
    Views: 80
    Downloads: 13

    Jollibee Foods Corp. gets a BUY recommendation based on the analysis of financial statements, information on quick –service market, well-known stock analysts forecasts, and significant events for the period 2006 to 2016 (up to 30 September 2016).

  • Investors' Confidence Index (ICI)

    Source: Akramul Alam, CIMA part qualified
    Date Submitted: 17 Oct 2017
    Views: 39
    Downloads: 7
    A survey output on Investors Confidence on market.
  • SGX’s 20 Biggest China-Related Enterprises Returned 39.8% in YTD

    Source: SGX My Gateway
    Date Submitted: 15 Oct 2017
    Views: 2517
    Downloads: 15
    SGX’s 20 Biggest China-Related Enterprises Returned 39.8% in YTD
    • 20 of the biggest and active stocks with a China head office have averaged a market capitalisation-weighted total return of 39.8% in the year to date. This compares with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index’s (SHCOMP) +8.0% (in SGD terms).
    • The 20 biggest stocks maintain market capitalisation-weighted P/E and P/B ratios of 11.2x and 1.3x respectively, below 17.6x and 1.9x respectively for the SHCOMP. Nine of these stocks maintain higher ROEs than the SHCOMP’s 10.7%.
    • The five best performers among the 20 stocks in the YTD are Delong Holdings, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, China Sunsine Chemical Holdings, Yanlord Land and China Aviation Oil. They maintain an average ROE of 16.2%.
  • Panel: Investment Opportunities in APAC

    Source: Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
    Date Submitted: 11 Oct 2017
    Views: 18109
    Downloads: 0

    The 2017 Taiwan Investment Conference on 12 October 2017 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of CFA Society Taiwan. Keynote speakers and panel discussions highlight hot investment topics in Taiwan and the region. This post relates to the panel discussion on Investment Opportunities in APAC.

    Moderator: Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFAA. Stotz Investment Research

    Panel: Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, CFAPartner at Grant Thornton (Vietnam)Ashraf Bava, CFAChief Executive at Nael Capital (Pvt) LimitedApril Lynn Tan, CFAVice President and Head of Research at COL Financial, and Biharilal Deora, CFA, CIPM, FCA, CFP, CIWMPartner at BDVG & Associates.

    Markets discussed: India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

  • 聚焦中国市场的材料股引领今年板块涨势

    Source: 新交所
    Date Submitted: 10 Oct 2017
    Views: 101
    Downloads: 0
    聚焦中国市场的材料股引领今年板块涨势
    • 材料板块是新加坡 2017 年年初至今表现第二出色的板块,市值加权平均涨幅为 31%。相比之下,MSCI 世界材料指数上涨了 10%。
    • 新加坡市值最大的 10 只材料股年初至今的涨幅中值为 5%,平均涨幅则为 54%。同时,新加坡市值最大且大部分收入来自中国的 10 只材料股年初至今的涨幅中值为 44%,平均涨幅为 87%。
    • 新加坡市值最大且聚焦于中国市场的 10 只材料股中有 7 只股票报告 2017 财年上半年净利润录得增长。这些公司的净利润同比增幅介于九天化工集团 (Jiutian Chemical Group) 的 414% 至达成包装集团 (Tat Seng Packaging Group) 的 37.7% 之间。
     
    材料板块以主要业务是将原材料转化为工业材料用品的股票为代表。这类公司可能涉及勘探、开发或加工活动。根据全球行业分类标准(GICS®),材料板块包括制造化学品、建材、玻璃、纸类产品、木材产品及相关包装产品的公司以及钢铁生产商等金属、矿物和采矿公司。
     
  • 东盟概念股将从中国一带一路倡议中获益

    Source: 新交所
    Date Submitted: 08 Oct 2017
    Views: 96
    Downloads: 0
    东盟概念股将从中国一带一路倡议中获
    • 凭借毗邻中国的地理优势以及相对较低的风险水平,预计东盟将是一带一路倡议的主要受益者及桥头堡,该地区将有更多的基础设施的建设和改造项目,而贸易活动及地区联系也会更加紧密。
    • 作为东盟成员国,新加坡将通过其金融中心地位在一带一路倡议中发挥重要作用。此外,新加坡还具备成熟的产业,并有着专业经验可推动并支持一带一路倡议在东盟地区的基础建设项目。
    在新交所 GICS® 工业、材料和公用事业板块中,192 只股票(约占总市值的 25%)有至少 20% 的收入来自东盟地区。其中20 只市值最大的股票中,有 13 只年初至今录得上涨。表现最好的五只股票是怡和策略 (Jardine Strategic, +25.5%)、海峡贸易公司 (Straits Trading, +25.1%)、立合斯顿控股 (Riverstone Holdings, +18.7%)、新捷运 (SBS Transit, +17.9%) 和吉宝基础设施信托 (Keppel Infrastructure Trust, +16.8%)。
     
  • The Anatomy of the Gold Crash of April 12-15, 2013 from a Liquidity Perspective – An Application of Donier and Bouchaud’s Measure of Illiquidity

    Source: Daniel Ceferino D. Camagay
    Date Submitted: 26 Sep 2017
    Views: 92
    Downloads: 5
    Gold crash of April 12-15, 2013 as seen from a liquidity perspective using Donier and Bouchard's measure of illiquidity
  • Global Market Inefficiencies

    Source: Sohnke M. Bartram, Mark Grinblatt
    Date Submitted: 22 Sep 2017
    Views: 750
    Downloads: 55
    Academic Research Paper
  • How Are Institutional Investors Using ETFs in Asia?

    Source: John Davies, Managing Director, Global Head of Exchange Traded Products
    Date Submitted: 15 Sep 2017
    Views: 1416
    Downloads: 70

    Although selecting ETFs can be challenging due the wide variety of products, they can be used as tactical and strategic tools for asset allocation. Market participants have recently been moving funds from underperforming products into more cost-effective ETFs. The sweet spot appears to be the intersection between active and passive smart beta products.

  • 七夕 - “心”周期

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 12 Sep 2017
    Views: 138
    Downloads: 2
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 29 Aug 2017.
     
  • Cinematic Journey of Southeast Asia's Venture Ecosystem

    Source: Victor Chua Kok Hoe (https://www.linkedin.com/in/victor4chua/)
    Date Submitted: 07 Sep 2017
    Views: 846
    Downloads: 34
    Southeast Asia's venture investing scene is booming, but not without its long history and influence by other regions in Asia. We are seeing a rush of investors from North Asia coming down to Southeast Asia, pushing the ecosystem to a more mature state and enhancing exit opportunities.
  • A Comprehensive Review on the Cement Industry

    Source: Mohammad Asrarul Haque, Md. Nazmus Sakib
    Date Submitted: 07 Sep 2017
    Views: 1441
    Downloads: 114
    Owing to the urbanization, improved living standard and increasing purchasing power, the construction sector of Bangladesh is passing a shining period. The installed capacity of the local manufacturers far outstrips domestic demand. Although the growth in the demand of cement has been increasing in Bangladesh, it is far below than that of many developing countries. Currently there are seven listed cement manufacturing companies in Bangladesh capital market.
  • Investment Opportunity in Cash Rich Japanese Equity 3: Stronger Support in Japan for Activist Funds Demanding Increase in Shareholder Returns

    Source: Kei Yamaguchi, MM Capital Investments
    Date Submitted: 03 Sep 2017
    Views: 877
    Downloads: 27
    Japanese regional banks have been suffering from the severe business environment and financial conditions since the 2008 Lehman Crisis. This situation has worsened since the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates in 2016.

    On the other hand, Japanese corporations still have not paid sufficient dividends to its shareholders. The dividend payout relative to net profit (Payout Ratio) and capital (DOE) are half or less of leading global markets.

    Shareholder proposals for an increased dividend payout of Japanese corporations are more supportive by large investors including banks in Japan. Another tail wind is the Japanese “Stewardship Code” which seeks for stronger corporate governance and deeper dialogues between corporations and shareholders
  • 中国经济周期权威指南 之二 - 新高

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 03 Sep 2017
    Views: 238
    Downloads: 8
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 27 Aug 2017.
  • Mergers and acquisitions: how do you view their underlying substance?

    Source: Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants
    Date Submitted: 30 Aug 2017
    Views: 2404
    Downloads: 69
    Are you a shareholder or analyst with an interest in mergers and acquisitions? 
    The accounting standard-setters need your expertise. 

    We are aware that M&As are common and can take the form of group restructurings or third party acquisitions. There is usually no question that there is underlying substance to acquisitions with third parties - the transaction price typically represents the fair market value of the acquired business. But M&As within a group might arguably be different.

    The findings of this M&A survey will be published and will help us consider whether all M&As should be accounted and reported in the same way. 

    To participate, click on this link: http://survey.hkicpa.org.hk/index.php?sid=57118&lang=en, or download and email us the attached survey: outreachhk@hkicpa.org.hk
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - What Are the Actual Effects of Cash Holdings? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry      

    Source: Vikas Agarwal, Haibei Zhao
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 120
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - How Do Smart Beta ETFs Affect the Asset Management Industry? Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows      

    Source: Jie Cao, Jason C. Hsu, Zhanbing Xiao, Xintong Zhan
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 89
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - A Model-Free Tail Risk Index and Its Return Predictability        

    Source: Jinji Hao
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 93
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Global Market Inefficiencies      

    Source: Söhnke M. Bartram, Mark Grinblatt
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 127
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds      

    Source: Zhi Da, Xing Huang
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Persistent Blessings of Luck      

    Source: Lin William Cong, Yizhou Xiao
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks    

    Source: Olesya V. Grishchenko, Zhaogang Song, Hao Zhou
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 78
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Dynamic Momentum and Contrarian Trading      

    Source: Victoria Dobrynskaya
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 78
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Does the Application of Smart Beta Strategies Enhance Portfolio Performance? The Case of Islamic Equity Investments      

    Source: Muhammad Wajid Raza, Dawood Ashraf
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Avoiding Interest-Based Revenues While Constructing Shariah-Compliant Portfolios: False Negatives and False Positives    

    Source: Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin, Kris Boudt, Muhammad Wajid Raza
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Price of Value and Divergence Factor      

    Source: Lin William Cong, Nathan George, Guojun Wang
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 31
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Stocks with Extreme Past Returns: Lotteries or Insurance?      

    Source: Alexander Barinov
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 83
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Disaggregated Sales and Stock Returns    

    Source: Sumit Agarwal, Wenlan Qian, Xin Zou
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Catering Through Disclosure: Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect

    Source: Aaron S. Yoon
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 0
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
     
  • AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize - Climate Risks and Market Efficiency

    Source: Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu
    Date Submitted: 29 Aug 2017
    Views: 2
    Downloads: 0
    Paper Submission for AAM-CAMRI-CFA Institute Prize in Asset Management
  • For China, this Time is Different

    Source: Jonathan Rochford CFA
    Date Submitted: 24 Aug 2017
    Views: 148
    Downloads: 10
    In 2008 China announced a massive stimulus package that helped its economy and the global economy weather the storm. But nearly ten years on, the situation is very different and China could shift from being a big contributor to global growth to an anchor slowing down the global economy.
  • Chinese Demand Growth Lifts Every Commodity

    Source: Jodie Gunzberg, CFA
    Date Submitted: 21 Aug 2017
    Views: 863
    Downloads: 0
    In this article, the impact of Chinese demand growth changes on overall commodities, sectors and individual commodities is examined, using year-over-year data from 1970.
  • EM Weekly: Beta Sell-Off, Asia Least Hard Hit

    Source: Richard Briggs
    Date Submitted: 13 Aug 2017
    Views: 150
    Downloads: 5
    • Risk assets took a bump last week largely due to global, rather than EM, factors. DM underperformed EM in excess return terms. In IG, EM corporates generated excess returns of minus 0.38% versus minus 0.54% on DM. In HY corporates a similar story was true with excess returns of minus 0.44% versus minus 1.12% on DM.  
    •  
    • One of the drivers of the risk off tone last week was the war of words between US President Donald Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un. That hit the Korean won hardest, it fell 1.64% versus the dollar over the week. Asian currencies were generally weaker last week, with the exception of the Chinese renminbi which strengthened by 0.98%. But in hard currency, the opposite was true with Korean names and sovereign debt generally outperforming IG counterparts.  
    •  
    • In fact the hardest hit last week in the hard currency corporate and sovereign indices were the LatAm and sub-Saharan African credits which are usually caught up in any beta sell off regardless of the driver. Asian names, which tend to be tighter, higher rated and more defensive were the strongest performing last week in that risk-off environment, including Korea.
    •  
    • Notable outliers to those broad moves last week included Teva which continued to sell off for a second week with very high trade volumes persisting after weaker 2Q17 results in the week before last. Teva was down by 1.62% in excess return terms. Venezuela and PDVSA were also among the bottom of the high yield indices' constituents for performance last week and continued to be very volatile, falling on average by 3.32% and 3.69% respectively in price terms last week. Kenya was at the stronger end of the sovereign index last week with excess returns of 0.71%, after relief that last week's elections didn't turn to violence, albeit with the result still being disputed and strikes planned on Monday.
    •  
    • Issuance slowed to a trickle last week with $2.5 bn priced, of which $1.7 bn was rated high yield. The only sovereign new issue was Gabon (B3/B+) which priced a $200 mn tap of its 6.95% 2025 notes. There are several other sovereign new issues being rumoured as coming in the second half of August or early Autumn including Bahrain (euros), $2 bn from Oman and $3 bn from Nigeria.
    •  
  • Emerging from the shadows - The shadow economy to 2025 

    Source: Boon Yew Ng
    Date Submitted: 08 Aug 2017
    Views: 139
    Downloads: 1
    The shadow economy (SE) is expected to decline globally by 2025, from 23% of global GDP in 2011 to an estimated 21% in 2025, on the basis of a mathematical analysis of the factors behind the SE. But the decline is not uniform, and a number of countries, particularly emerging market economies, are expected to experience an increase in the SE as a percentage of GDP by 2025.

    Emerging from the shadows, the shadow economy to 2025 provides a comprehensive examination of the global SE. The report is divided into four sections: SE forecasts for 28 countries to 2025, key factors shaping the SE, the impact and management of the shadow economy and finally recommendations for the accountancy profession
  • What is driving the corporate bond market development in Asia?

    Source: Oskar Kowalewski, Paweł Pisany
    Date Submitted: 05 Aug 2017
    Views: 1188
    Downloads: 20
    We investigate the development of corporate bond markets in 10 Asian countries from 1995 to 2014. Using panel data on the market size and total issue of bonds by financial and non-financial companies, we confirm that macroeconomic and institutional factors are related to the depth of the market. In addition, we show that the issuance of bonds is also determined by other factors that strongly depend on the issuer type. We show that creditor rights and institutional quality are important in explaining the issuance of bonds by financial institutions. Furthermore, we determine a strong positive association between the level of domestic credit and the market and issue size of corporate bonds. In our opinion, the results indicate that there is a positive relationship between the development of the corporate bond market and the banking sector. These findings indicate that increased demand for bank loans induced the issuance of bonds by financial institutions which, in turn, may have led to the development of corporate bond markets in Asia.
  • Energy Posts Its Best July Since 2004

    Source: Jodie Gunzberg, CFA
    Date Submitted: 01 Aug 2017
    Views: 1083
    Downloads: 0
    The S&P GSCI Energy Total Return gained 8.1% in July, the most for a July in 13 years, led by petroleum that was up 9.2%.  Finally the fundamentals may be showing the oil market is starting to rebalance with the rest of the commodities. 
  • RMBI Newsletter Issue 13 (Financial Crime Risk: Anti-Money Laundering and The Rise of Text Mining in Financial Markets)

    Source: Tsang Chiu Yu, Derek, Wong Ching Ip, Venice, Chiu Hok He, Angus, Li Chin Wa, Chin
    Date Submitted: 26 Jul 2017
    Views: 175
    Downloads: 0
    In the latest issue (Issue 13 – August 2017), it covers the stories of:
     
    Financial Crime Risk : Anti-Money Laundering Practices in Banking
    To understand anti-money laundering, we have to understand what money laundering is. Money Laundering is the process of converting illegal funds into seemingly legitimate assets with the purpose of concealing the ownership or original source of these funds. This makes it difficult for the authorities to trace the origins of the funds. To counter this, the banking sector has established a set of internal regulations and system known as anti-money laundering. These are legal controls taken by financial institutions to investigate suspicious transactions to help prevent money laundering activities within the banking sector.
     
    The Rise of Text Mining in Financial Markets
    The world is awash in data. Financial markets are awash in data. We are generating around 2.5 quintillion (2.5×1018) bytes of information every day, and there is an average of 4,000 brokerage reports a day comprising around 36,000 pages in 53 languages. As market participants try to maximize their competitive edge from the growing mountain of information, the nancial world increasingly feels there is a need to harness the power of big data and it has been shaping the way they acquire, analyze and utilize data. The recent development is the rapid expansion of text mining. Hence, this article will focus on the development of Text Mining technology as well as Text Mining technique.
  • Dynamic Relationship between Gold Prices, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

    Source: Farhan Ahmed, Muhammad Kashif, Farjad Feroz
    Date Submitted: 17 Jul 2017
    Views: 217
    Downloads: 13
    This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between key macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan including gold prices, stock market returns, and exchange rate and oil prices. Significant variations or shocks have been observed over time especially in the past decade among the stated macroeconomic variables. It is essential to validate the relationship between them periodically and this study will help investors who want to diversify their investment into various assets classes including financial assets and real assets.
  • APER - Under Deployed

    Source: CAPER
    Date Submitted: 04 Jul 2017
    Views: 220
    Downloads: 2
    Key Points
    • Private equity capital is under deployed in Asia. The US$127.2 bn in transaction volume in 2016 represents only 0.48% of Asia’s GDP; whereas in the US, it was more than 1%

    • Asia has room to absorb over US$130 bn of capital deployment from private equity

    • In the 10 years from 2007 to 2016, China’s GDP has nearly tripled, but private equity investment, as a percentage of its GDP, on average, accounted for 0.3% of the country’s economic output

    • Australia/New Zealand enjoys the highest percentage of private equity capital deployment, at 2.5% of its GDP in 2016, suggesting that a market with a mature private equity infrastructure is a magnet for capital 
  • Joint Feasibility Study on China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement

    Source: PMC Research Center, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)
    Date Submitted: 27 Jun 2017
    Views: 145
    Downloads: 4
    China and Georgia are friendly countries. In 1991, China recognized the independence of Georgia -- among the first countries to recognize the independence of Georgia and established diplomatic relations. In 1992, China established diplomatic relations with Georgia. After twenty years of close interactions of leaders and people, fruitful cooperation in various fields is achieved.

    In 1993, relevant government departments of China and Georgia signed several agreements, such as economic and trade agreement, agreement on encouragement and mutual protection of investments, scientific and technical cooperation agreement, agreement on cultural cooperation, health and medical science cooperation agreement, cooperation agreements in agriculture and food industry, tourism cooperation agreements, customs mutual assistance agreement, inter-bank cooperation agreement, and the development of railway transport cooperation agreement and maritime cooperation agreements. In 1994, the two countries signed the "mutual exemption of visas for official travel and group travel visa-free mutual agreement", "China agreement to provide 30 million yuan commodity loans to Georgia." In 1999, the two countries agreeed in Tbilisi Georgia to establish a Commission on Economic and Trade Cooperation, and held the first meeting. China is always a friend of Georgia. In September 2013, during a visit to Kazakhstan, President Xi Jinping proposed the "Silk Road economic belt" strategic vision, enthusiasticly responded by many countries including Georgia. On March 9, 2015, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Sustainable Development of Georgia agreed to establish a joint working group on trade to study feasibility of China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement. The two sides also signed a memorandum on strengthening "Silk Road economic belt" to jointly promote economic and trade cooperation, and to enhance trade, investment, economic and technical cooperation and infrastructure interconnection level. To start a free trade agreement feasibility study for the two sides, serves as an important initiative to strengthen "Silk Road economic belt", which will reinvigorate bilateral economic and trade relations for the two countries.

    Georgia and China intend to intensify the trade and economic relations through creating free trade agreement. The goal of the report is to evaluate the potential, ex-ante effects of free trade agreement on existing trade flows and identify the specific areas of interest for further cooperation. The Research component of the report include the methodology and discuss some effects of differences in methodologies used by Georgian and Chinese experts, data description, detailed results of simulations and sensitivity analysis of parameters and discuss the specific sectors for potential augmentation of cooperation.

    This report seeks to analyze the potential benefits and challedges of a potential China-Georgia free trade agreement. It involves the study of foreign economic situation between the two countries, in particular, through analyzing foreign economic policies and bilateral economic and trade relations, investigating issues related to trade in goods, trade in services and investments. Based on that, solid scientific suggestions will be given to guide the potential free trade agreement negotiations.

    The objectives of the study are:
    - To provide background information to commence negotiations on CGFTA.
    - Identify specific products sectors for expansion and diversification of trade between the parties.
    - Identify the benefits and challenges that may derive from the proposed FTA.
    - To make conclusions and recommendations on options for future action including scope, framework and architecture and FTA for furthering bilateral trade investment and economic cooperation to expand and enhance the benefits in these areas.
  • PBOC Monthly: Onshore Corporate Bonds - Dead or Alive?

    Source: Matthew Phan, CFA
    Date Submitted: 22 Jun 2017
    Views: 1803
    Downloads: 26
    • Local government bond issuance has roared back to life but corporate bond financing saw the largest monthly net decline since at least 2011. Other non-bank financing was also weak in May, with outstanding entrusted loans and undiscounted bills falling on a net basis. 
    • Bank lending rose by 12.8% YoY and was the main driver of social financing growth which grew 13.0%. Household loan growth peaked in April and decelerated slightly to 24.3% YoY in May. There are multiple reports of tighter controls on the housing market, though there is not yet specific data on mortgage lending for May. Corporate loan growth picked up further to 8.5%. 
    • The weak corporate bond market is a major risk for economic growth and for corporate credit quality.  The PBOC could inject liquidity to bring down short term rates, which should reopen the bond market, but this means shifting the focus away from 'deleveraging' and might also risk renewed concerns over capital outflows. China has enjoyed relative external stability this year but this could change if the USD strengthens as and when US inflation and rates pick up or as the Fed commences plans to reduce its balance sheet. 
    • Refinancing costs have risen by over 100 bp on short dated commercial paper issued in 2015-16 when yields were low. They have risen by less on longer-dated bonds issued prior to 2015. There is some RMB 1.4 bn of commercial paper due to mature in the remaining months of 2017, with the largest issuance from the manufacturing, utilities and mining sectors.
    • Issuers of longer-dated bonds might not face a big increase in refinancing costs but could instead face the risk of being entirely unable to issue. The real estate sector in particular has a sizable amount of bonds coming due or turning putable in the remaining months of 2017 but gross issuance has been negligible in the last few months due to regulatory restrictions. Other sectors with large amounts of issuance coming due include manufacturing, conglomerates, construction and mining. 
  • A股入摩:历史性时刻后的思考

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 22 Jun 2017
    Views: 250
    Downloads: 13
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 21 June 2017.
  • 下半年展望:要命的不漂亮,漂亮的不要命

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 22 Jun 2017
    Views: 560
    Downloads: 18
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 8 June 2017.
  • 2H17 Outlook: An Idiot's Guide to China's Nifty-Fifty Run

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 22 Jun 2017
    Views: 160
    Downloads: 7
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 9 June 2017.
  • Divided we fall, distributed we stand. - The professional accountant’s guide to distributed  ledgers and  blockchain

    Source: Narayanan Vaidyanathan
    Date Submitted: 20 Jun 2017
    Views: 251
    Downloads: 0
    A distributed or shared ledger is a digital database of records. These records contain information relevant to a group of participants within a network.

    In a distributed ledger all participants are looking at a common view of the records. This is in contrast to a typical situation currently where participants (for example, in different organisations) are looking at different databases that are independently managed and updated.

    As Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) matures, the shared ledger’s common view of records and transparency of transaction history could reduce reconciliation across different databases and drive significant efficiencies. Business processes that are characterised by inefficiencies (eg trade finance), or exist because of a lack of trust (eg Know Your Customer requirements in financial services) or poor supply chain visibility (eg for global garment supply chains) are all key areas for distributed ledger applications.

    This report introduces and explores the concept of distributed ledgers, examines its commercial potential and how this relates to different aspects of professional accountancy.
  • China MSCI EM inclusion can be CNY & CNH positive

    Source: CIBC (Patrick Bennett)
    Date Submitted: 19 Jun 2017
    Views: 179
    Downloads: 16
    After some years of false starts, Chinese A-shares are expected to be included in the MSCI Emerging Market Index
  • Home Purchase Restriction and Housing Price: A Distribution Dynamics Analysis

    Source: Victor Jing Li, Andy Wui Wing Cheng, Tsun Se Cheong
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2017
    Views: 147
    Downloads: 6
    China’s residential housing market has been largely influenced by the central government’s policy initiatives. This study examines how implementation and removal of home purchase restrictions affect housing price changes in major cities. Based on the dataset of 70 large and medium sized cities between 2014 and 2015, the price evolution trends are evaluated by the distribution dynamic analysis based on the method of Mobility Probability Plot (MPP). This newly developed method allows for better exploring housing price dynamics under home purchase restriction policy. There are four major findings: First, home purchase restriction has salient effect on curbing speculative investment demand in terms of lowering large sized housing price growth; Second, home purchase restriction has long run effect in bringing down housing prices if current price increase does not exceed 5 percent on a month-to-month basis; Third, small or large sized housing may face more downward pressure of housing prices than medium sized housing under home purchase restriction; Fourth, removal of home purchase restriction may saliently increase the housing price levels that had been contained.
  • 如何引导银行业回归本源、专注主业 —— 基于银行转型实践的思考

    Source: 王刚
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2017
    Views: 667
    Downloads: 15
    国务院发展研究中心金融研究所“‘十三五’时期我国银行业转型研究”课题组:王刚 执笔

    《调查研究报告》[ 2017年第61号(总5136号)
  • Two insightful reports on Fintech and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) by Financial Services Development Council (FSDC)

    Source: Financial Services Development Council (FSDC)
    Date Submitted: 13 Jun 2017
    Views: 1492
    Downloads: 0
    Given most of the FinTech innovations, in particular the DLT, are developed for providing services directly to consumers, FinTech has initially been regarded as disruptive to the established financial institutions. However, a more recent development is that increasingly FinTech innovations are developed by, and in collaboration with, the well established incumbents in the financial sector. There are two very insightful reports on FinTech and DLT published by the FSDC in May 2017; which covers extensively the following areas including cybersecurity, payment and securities settlement, digital ID and KYC utility, WealthTech and InsurTech (including data analytics, automation and artificial intelligence), RegTech as well as Distributed Ledger Technology.  

    Attached are the two links to these two reports by FSDC.  

    http://www.fsdc.org.hk/sites/default/files/FSDC%20Paper_FinTech_E.pdf

    http://www.fsdc.org.hk/sites/default/files/FSDC%20Paper_DLT_E.pdf
     
  • The Finance Industry and Educational Providers Need Tight Relationships

    Source: Dan Daugaard
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2017
    Views: 137
    Downloads: 6
    A new CFA Institute study predicts large scale trends will have a significant impact on the investment industry. The landscape is expected to change dramatically and new skill sets will be necessary for investment professionals to be successful in this new environment. This is likely to produce fresh challenges for organisations providing education to the investment industry. They will need to adapt and construct educational services relevant for the industry of tomorrow. Some are evidently already moving towards a more engaged role. 
  • What next after the S&P ratings upgrade?

    Source: Kahlil Rowter
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2017
    Views: 79
    Downloads: 0
    Indonesia was recently upgraded by S&P to investment grade, after a 20-year hiatus. What were the rationales behind the upgrade, and what will follow next as a consequence?
  • Practitioner's Brief (Video):  Behind Closed Doors - How Private Meetings Move Public Markets

    Source: Research Gate
    Date Submitted: 25 May 2017
    Views: 231
    Downloads: 0
    The authors of a recent study on insider trading have taken a new, financial spin on the classic thought experiment that asks whether a falling tree makes any sound in an empty forest. Looking at how corporate insiders might use confidential information to make trades, they ask ‘If executives of publicly traded companies meet with investors, and no one from the public is around, does the information exchanged still influence the stock market?’ The results are striking.
  • Smart Beta, Smart Money

    Source: Yeguang Chi, Qinghua Chen
    Date Submitted: 24 May 2017
    Views: 1945
    Downloads: 42

    Factor-timing strategies in the U.S. produce weak returns and are strongly correlated to the basic factor-holding strategies. We present contrasting evidence from China, where mutual funds successfully time the size factor despite a negative unconditional loading. Funds with bigger return gaps exhibit more size-factor-timing skill and outperform. Additionally, size-factor timing serves as an important channel of performance persistence, especially among high-alpha funds. Finally, we estimate fund position in different size portfolios and show that it significantly forecasts size-factor returns. 

  • The Reflation Trade Is Over; Get Set for Defensive Rotation

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 10 Apr 2017
    Views: 1465
    Downloads: 6
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 6 March 2017.
  • Is There a Friday Effect in Financial Markets?

    Source: Guglielmo Maria Caporale,
    Date Submitted: 07 Apr 2017
    Views: 1888
    Downloads: 17
    This paper tests for the presence of the Friday effect in various financial markets (stock markets, FOREX, and commodity markets) by using a number of statistical techniques (average analysis, parametric tests such as Student's t-test and ANOVA analysis, non-parametric ones such as the Kruskal-Wallis test, regression analysis with dummy variables). The evidence suggests that stock markets are immune to Friday effects, whilst in the FOREX Fridays exhibit higher volatility, and in the Gold market returns are higher on this day of the week. Using a trading robot approach we show that the latter anomaly can be exploited to make abnormal profits.
  • Equity Insight on Golden Harvest Agro Industries Ltd

    Source: Mohammad Asrarul Haque, Tajkera Rahman
    Date Submitted: 06 Apr 2017
    Views: 226
    Downloads: 20
    EBLSL prepares Equity Insight Report on regular basis that provides brief company insights based on fundamental analysis along with a preview of respective industry in which the company operates. Besides, factors affecting stock prices i.e. investment positives and negatives are also presented in the report.
  • Practitioner’s Brief: Paying Attention to Stock Ranking

    Source: Danling Jiang, Jingyu Cui
    Date Submitted: 03 Apr 2017
    Views: 396
    Downloads: 0
    WHAT’S THE INVESTMENT ISSUE?
    Investors have a limited amount of attention to give to their investment decisions. Many believe that paying attention to rankings of stocks provides them with a less attention demanding decision making shortcut. In reality, however, does paying attention to stocks ranked in a more salient place help improve financial decisions and market efficiency? Existing research on ranking and attention typically encounters the difficulty of separating out the pure effect of attention from that of fundamental news, which is especially true when rankings correlate with fundamentals. Thus, findings based on fundamental based rankings are subject to the confounding effects of both attention and fundamentals. The author tackles this challenge by exploring the price limit rule in China’s stock markets. Under that rule, stocks that hit the 10% upper price limit on a day are ranked by their daily returns, whose differentials are produced by mechanical rounding of maximum price changes as opposed to differential fundamental news. Investment practitioners in markets with the price limit rule in place may wish to exploit the impact of stock rankings for those stocks hitting the upper price limit. Thus, relevant questions to practitioners would pertain to (1) whether hitting the 10% upper price limit is truly an attention-grabbing event; (2) whether differential attention is allocated across the stocks hitting the price limit based on their rankings; and (3) whether stocks hitting the price limit that are ranked differently exhibit different subsequent returns, trading volume, volatility, and liquidity.

    HOW DOES THE AUTHOR TACKLE THIS ISSUE?
    The author conducted a series of tests to address the empirical questions posed above, studying a sample of China’s A-shares (shares that are quoted and traded in Chinese RMB) on China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). The time period is from 16 December 1996, when SSE and SZSE initially established the current price limit rule, to 31 March 2015, when the research project was initiated. The author selects 2,505 out of 4,910 trading days; during these days the markets had at least 5 upper price-limit events. We hereafter call stocks that hit the upper price limit on a day the “event” stocks. For most stocks, the daily absolute price movement is regulated to be 10% of the previous trading day’s closing price. When the 10% price change is not an integer number of cents, the daily price limit is rounded to the nearest cent. This creates different maximum returns allowed across stocks with different previous closing prices. For example, stocks with the previous closing price of RMB 9.99, RMB 10.00, and RMB 10.01 would all have a daily maximum price change of RMB 1.00; this results in a maximum return limit of 10.01%, 10.00%, and 9.99%, respectively. The differential maximum return limit is, therefore, caused by mechanical rounding and not by differential fundamental news. As a result, the author identifies the pure effect of ranking by exploring the differential attention paid to the more saliently ranked stock, which returns 10.01% in a day in the previous example, versus those with less salient rankings, which return 10% or 9.99%, and the implications of rankings for the financial market. To carry out the tests, the author hand collected the website viewer data from hexun.com, one of the largest financial websites in China. The number of viewers from different IP addresses measures the attention paid by investors to a particular stock on a day. The author tested the impact of investor ranking by comparing two groups of event stocks, based on whether their event-day return was above median (usually 10%) or not, across dimensions of contemporaneous and subsequent returns, volume, volatility, and liquidity. Event stocks with the above median return were assigned to the high-rank group (with an average of above 12 stocks per day); the remainder were assigned to the low-rank group (with an average of near 10 stocks per day).

    WHAT ARE THE FINDINGS?
    The author finds that investors do pay significantly more attention to stocks hitting the price limit for several days on and after they hit the upper limit, measuring attention by the number of viewers on the hexun.com webpage. The abnormally high attention persists for two weeks after the event day. Furthermore, the high-rank group receives even more attention than the low-rank group on the event day and the subsequent three days. Relative to the low-rank group, the high-rank group of event stocks experiences a greater price increase for two days as well as a greater price reversal that follows within one to two weeks. As for trading volume, liquidity, and return volatility, the results suggest that during the post-event period, the high-attention group of event stocks exhibits higher trading volume, better liquidity, and higher volatility. Smaller investors are more affected by the rank effect. Moreover, the effect of trading volume and volatility is larger and persists longer, but the effect of liquidity is smaller and lasts only for a few days. These effects are noticeably stronger when a larger number of stocks are hitting the upper price limit on a particular day—thus, investors are more attention constrained and top rankings are more salient. The author conducts similar analyses on stocks with a 5% price limit and stocks that hit the 10% lower price limit. The evidence is overall weak, suggesting that it is the rankings of stocks that hit the upper price limit that matter most for attention allocation. When the maximum return is not extreme enough to make the top ranking, or the ranking is for losers and mainly attracts sellers, neither strong investor attention nor the effect of attention is found.

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS?
    The findings send a clear message that even pure rankings that are uncorrelated with fundamentals dictate investor attention and lead to large and predictable effects on asset prices. Understanding how ranking affects asset prices will help to improve portfolio performance for institutional and individual investors who trade in securities markets where financial assets are presented in various ranking formats. Investors may consider exploring the temporary price momentum and subsequent price reversal of highly ranked stocks, and more importantly, exploring the return differential between high- and low-rank groups of stocks using a long-short portfolio. The conventional wisdom is that having investors who pay attention is a good thing; it means that important fundamental news is received and consumed, leading to more efficient asset prices. Advances in behavioural finance in recent years, however, suggest that attention may have a detrimental effect when it interplays with behavioural biases, such as the pure order effect. The findings of this article demonstrate such evidence as well as opportunities for smart investors who are paying attention in the right places. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summarized by Danling Jiang and Jingyu Cui. Danling Jiang is an Associate Professor of Finance at Stony Brook University—SUNY and the Chang Jiang Scholar Visiting Professor at Southwest Jiaotong University. Jingyu Cui is a Master of Science in Finance student at Stony Brook University—SUNY.
  • Practitioner’s Brief: Demystifying Seasonal Chinese Stock Return Synchronicity

    Source: Jing Wang, Steven X. Wei, Wayne Yu
    Date Submitted: 02 Apr 2017
    Views: 463
    Downloads: 0
    WHAT'S THE INVESTMENT ISSUE?
    How much of a stock’s movement can be attributed to movements in the index in which it resides? And, if a stock moves in line with an index (or, in academic parlance, has a "high R-squared") what, exactly, accounts for that co-movement? Industry members and academics have numerous theories: shared information being digested in lockstep by portfolio managers; index funds rebalancing themselves; or random noise—some inexplicable yet observable factor that for whatever reason creates an environment of stock-return synchronicity. For quant managers spotting trends, there’s no point in asking why; they just want the trend to repeat. Not so for researchers such as Wang, Wei, and Yu, who want to bring new perspective to this puzzle, one that has proved tricky for active fundamental managers seeking to differentiate themselves against the benchmark. In tackling the question of synchronicity, the authors explore the issue across a dynamic setting—earnings season in China, when more-robust information on companies becomes available—and also consider newer companies versus older ones.

    HOW DO THE AUTHORS TACKLE THIS ISSUE?
    They examine synchronicity levels during earnings season, which for 98% of Chinese companies is January through April. The authors also go a step further, overlaying a variety of variables such as changes in fundamentals, fluctuating liquidity conditions, and corporate events. These events include any activity that could increase assets by 50% or more (e.g., a merger) and thus affect a company's systematic volatility.

    WHAT ARE THE FINDINGS?
    The authors discover that in rich information environments (i.e., earnings season), the degree of synchronicity (stocks moving in tandem) actually is reduced; and in less informative environments (non-earnings periods, May through December), synchronicity is more prevalent. This finding is noteworthy, if only in light of the overriding preconceptions about emerging markets such as China, long thought to generally be more prone to synchronous behavior relative to developed markets (for a host of reasons, including property rights considerations). Here, the authors are able to observe a repeated pattern: During Chinese earnings season, the degree of systematic volatility in that market is reduced. The trend is more pronounced for older companies with longer track records of meeting (or failing to meet) their numbers. One explanation stems from a concept that the authors call "intra-industry, cross-asset learning." Drilling down into this concept rather simplistically for illustration's sake, suppose three large companies from different industries (e.g., an automaker, a coal miner, and a retailer) make earnings announcements on the same day. Investors may make inferences about other companies in these respective industries. Now, further suppose that the following happens: The automaker’s earnings come in as expected; the coal miner’s come in better than expected; and the retailer’s do much worse than expected. In this example, one might expect share prices to behave distinctly among the three industries: mostly flat for auto firms, up for coal mining firms, and down for retailers. The market as a whole, however, may change little that day, with the offsetting share price changes in the different industries dampening the market or systematic volatility. In other words, share prices move in a less synchronized fashion because of intra-industry, cross-asset learning during the earnings announcement season, which reduces market or systematic volatility in the meantime.

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS?
    This study challenges the prevailing wisdom that Chinese stocks tend to move in step with each other, particularly with a time consideration (i.e., earnings season, when a higher intensity of firm-specific information arrives in the market). For stock pickers trying to differentiate themselves from a benchmark, earnings season would thus provide an especially opportune moment to show their ability to make a judgment call on a stock, take a position (bullish or bearish), and not have it mooted by the whims of the overall market. Conversely, for index investors, the authors’ findings suggest that the time to rebalance toward a passive approach would be during non-earnings season when Chinese stock market return synchronicity appears to be at a higher level. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Summarized by Rich Blake. Rich is a veteran financial journalist who has written for numerous media outlets, including Reuters, ABC News and Institutional Investor. The views expressed herein reflect those of the authors and do not represent the official views of CFA Institute or the authors’ employers.
  • Quarterly Equity Market Insights (Sep 2015)

    Source: Richard Tortoriello, Paul Fruin, CFA, Simon Chen
    Date Submitted: 25 Mar 2017
    Views: 165
    Downloads: 4
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in June 2015.
  • Quarterly Equity Market Insights (Mar 2015)

    Source: Richard Tortoriello, Paul Fruin, CFA
    Date Submitted: 25 Mar 2017
    Views: 52
    Downloads: 0
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in March 2015.
  • Quarterly Equity Market Insights (Jun 2015)

    Source: Richard Tortoriello, Paul Fruin, CFA
    Date Submitted: 24 Mar 2017
    Views: 64
    Downloads: 0
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in June 2015.
  • Bond market boom? Hong Kong's latest trading link set to spur $10 trillion market

    Source:
    Date Submitted: 24 Mar 2017
    Views: 206
    Downloads: 0
    WiC's latest review of the key business stories from China
  • Accounting for Natural Capital Costs Associated with Chinese Financial Institutions

    Source: Derek Hon Yan Ip, Lokesh Raikwar, Miriam Tarin, Lydia Harvey, Kaboo Leung
    Date Submitted: 21 Mar 2017
    Views: 365
    Downloads: 6
    This is a Banking Sector Case Study published in April 2016.
  • Quarterly Equity Market Insights (Dec 2015)

    Source: Richard Tortoriello, Paul Fruin, CFA, Li Ma, CFA
    Date Submitted: 18 Mar 2017
    Views: 93
    Downloads: 1
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in December 2015.
  • Point-In-Time vs. Lagged Fundamentals

    Source: Ernest Breitschwerdt, CFA
    Date Submitted: 18 Mar 2017
    Views: 70
    Downloads: 0
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in August 2015.
  • Practitioner’s Brief: The Power of Private Information

    Source: Yeguang Chi
    Date Submitted: 12 Mar 2017
    Views: 772
    Downloads: 0
    WHAT'S THE INVESTMENT ISSUE?
    During the last 18 months, China has witnessed a flurry of securities fraud investigations and arrests involving a wide cross-section of the industry, from high-rolling financiers to humble accounting professors, and even some regulators. The insider-trading crackdown is partly an effort to wash away perceived stains of corruption following the crash of summer 2015. Even before that, though, Chinese insider trading cases had begun to mount as the market, and mechanisms to regulate it, matured. Despite its relative inexperience, China’s stock market is the second largest on earth. Still, an assumption persists (and is studied by researchers such as Chi) regarding the relative information inefficiency and asymmetry of less developed markets such as China. In his article, Chi makes no secret of his own perceptions about the pervasiveness of non-public information used for investing. One given in the hypothesis suggesting there are greater inefficiencies to potentially exploit in China relative to the United States is the fact that most Chinese mutual funds can outperform the index—certainly not the case in the United States. For Chi, then, the driving question becomes: To what extent is private information exploited in a less developed financial market such as China? To a significant degree, as it turns out. Chi’s research suggests that at a minimum, the insider buy is a powerful predictive tool for the generally upward direction of the stocks being bought, particularly for issues from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and even more so for highly volatile stocks.

    HOW DOES THE AUTHOR TACKLE THIS ISSUE?
    Chi sets out to study insider trading in China via a proxy that, although an obvious choice, is nevertheless not to be conflated with criminal insider trading. That is, he looks at legal, disclosed trades made by corporate insiders, which, despite being purportedly aboveboard, still carry a connotation of information advantage. By creating a basic strategy to mimic insider buys, Chi demonstrates, at least on paper, the ability to add considerable alpha. Note that mimicking insider sells is not a good idea because sellers can have multiple motivations (e.g., liquidity or diversification needs). Buyers, on the other hand, generally are motivated by positive information. Mimicking insider buys may once have worked in the United States, when its stock market was nascent. Today, however, although by no means devoid of insider trading, the US market is viewed in academic terms as "efficient in semi-strong form." More informally, the system is not "rigged." If it were, Chi asserts, more US mutual fund managers would beat the index. In China, the perception of a rigged system became increasingly rampant after the summer of 2015 crash, as traders such as Xu Xiang (the Carl Ichan of China) seemed impervious to the market collapse when most other investors were crushed. Xu would later admit to conspiring with executives to control the timing of corporate announcements. To explore how private information is wielded in China, the author tapped the Wind Information database to study trading activity of corporate insiders (top executives, board members) between April 2007 and June 2014, focusing on the A-share market on two exchanges (Shanghai and Shenzhen) comprising some 2,555 stocks with a combined market cap (in 2013) of RMB20 trillion, or USD$3.3 trillion. The insiders' trading activity amounted to RMB900 billion, or 0.3% of total trading. Chi found the following: • Insiders reap large profits trading their company stocks. • Insider buys possess predictive power to stock prices; insider buys from SOEs have even stronger predicative power. • A rudimentary “mimicking-strategy” implemented for 12-month periods added 14.4% worth of annual alpha above the benchmark. And guess what else he found? The best-performing Chinese mutual funds' returns strongly correlated to the insider-mimicking strategy. Importantly, the fact that a fund trades in the same direction as insiders does not necessarily imply trading on material inside information. The author merely claims “that more correlated trading patterns point to a higher likelihood of private information shared by stock funds and corporate insiders." Because of data limitations, he cannot make a further claim about how fund managers obtain such private information.

    WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PORTFOLIO MANAGERS?
    Before one delves into the art and science of insider-mimicking strategies, it is important to note an additional finding by the author. Chi split his six-year study into two three-year periods. In the latter period, the predicative power of the insider buy diminished significantly compared with the first period. So, as time passed, the Chinese market appears to have become more, not less, efficient. Here’s one last bit of material information that is hardly any secret: China’s recent insider trading crackdown will serve only to accelerate this trend. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Summarized by Rich Blake. Rich is a veteran financial journalist who has written for numerous media outlets, including Reuters, ABC News and Institutional Investor. The views expressed herein reflect those of the author(s) and do not represent the official views of CFA Institute or the authors’ employers.
  • IPO Note on Shepherd Industries Limited

    Source: Rehan Kabir
    Date Submitted: 08 Mar 2017
    Views: 270
    Downloads: 14
    EBLSL prepares IPO Notes for the newly listed issues that provide brief company insights based on fundamental analysis along with a preview of respective industry in which the company operates. Besides, factors affecting stock prices i.e. investment positives and negatives are also presented in the report.
  • Evaluating Sustainable Investment Trends

    Source: Martina Macpherson, Emily Ulrich
    Date Submitted: 05 Mar 2017
    Views: 2121
    Downloads: 27
    This is a research report on Sustainability, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
  • Ranking and Salience

    Source: Baolian Wang
    Date Submitted: 05 Mar 2017
    Views: 202
    Downloads: 9
    This is a research paper published in February 2017.
  • How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

    Source: Yongding, Yu
    Date Submitted: 27 Feb 2017
    Views: 298
    Downloads: 3
    Yongding, Yu | February 2014
  • Issues for Renminbi Internationalization: An Overview

    Source: Eichengreen, Barry, Kawai, Masahiro
    Date Submitted: 27 Feb 2017
    Views: 241
    Downloads: 1
    Eichengreen, Barry; Kawai, Masahiro | January 2014
  • Judgement day for the 'other' Donald, dangerous drones, and tumbling taxes

    Source: Week in China
    Date Submitted: 24 Feb 2017
    Views: 263
    Downloads: 0
    Exclusively for CFA members, a flavour of our weekly round up of the key stories coming out of China. Catch up on why Hong Kong's former leader has been sent to jail; hear how changes in tax collection has been piling the pain on some of China's poorer provinces; and discover how dangerous flyers are prompting a rethink on drone regulations Go to: http://www.weekinchina.com/cfa-page/
  • A League of Their Own: Batting for Returns in the REIT Industry – Part 2

    Source: Temi Oyeniyi, CFA, David Pope, CFA, Paul Fruin, CFA, Vivian Ning, CFA, Richard Tortoriello
    Date Submitted: 16 Feb 2017
    Views: 319
    Downloads: 10
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in October 2016. Part 1: https://www.arx.cfa/post/A-League-of-Their-Own-Batting-for-Returns-in-the-REIT-Industry-Part-1-3282.html
  • A League of Their Own: Batting for Returns in the REIT Industry – Part 1

    Source: Temi Oyeniyi, CFA, David Pope, CFA, Paul Fruin, CFA, Vivian Ning, CFA, Richard Tortoriello
    Date Submitted: 16 Feb 2017
    Views: 2526
    Downloads: 61
    This is a Quantamental Research published by S&P Global Market Intelligence in September 2016.
  • Impact of elections on stock price graph: a case of US elections

    Source: Shreya Sethi, Shreya Sethi
    Date Submitted: 09 Feb 2017
    Views: 213
    Downloads: 5
    This paper focuses on the impact of US presidential elections on stock market. Thus, this paper aims to analyse the impact of the US presidential elections that have taken place from 1980 to 2010, on the stock market performance for eight different industries. The paper puts special emphasis on studying the abnormality of return related to stock prices and evaluating the uncertainty between the firm’s tax policy and stock market, around the time of upcoming presidential elections. This is a comparative study wherein the effects of pre- and post-election have been assessed. The empirical analysis undertaken relies on secondary data collected from various online sources. The results of the papers highlight; industry return data churn out ambiguous results when compared for winning election party. Also, the rate of reaction tends to differ grossly with respect to different industries. Democratic victory impacts the stock return negatively but in case of Republican victory the result is insignificant. A positive correlation exists between abnormal stock price and firms’ marginal tax rate around the day of the election. The paper proves there is a transitional effect of election, felt in the stock market irrespective of the anticipated outcome of the election.
  • Financial Inclusion in Developing Asia: Transactional Accounts, Savings, and Borrowing

    Source: Mylenko, Nataliya, Park, Donghyun
    Date Submitted: 09 Feb 2017
    Views: 107
    Downloads: 1
    Mylenko, Nataliya; Park, Donghyun | August 2015
  • Equity Insight- Olympic Accessories Limited

    Source: Mohammad Asrarul Haque, Salman Rahman
    Date Submitted: 06 Feb 2017
    Views: 333
    Downloads: 20
    Equity insight report is part of a regular product from EBLSL Research Portfolio. The attached report contains brief analysis and investment insight on Olympic Accessories Limited.
  • Financial Inclusion, Poverty, and Income Inequality in Developing Asia

    Source: Park, Cyn-Young, Mercado, Rogelio Jr. V.
    Date Submitted: 06 Feb 2017
    Views: 339
    Downloads: 3
    Park, Cyn-Young; Mercado, Rogelio Jr. V. | January 2015
  • Asia Pacific Disaster Response Fund: Review of Performance

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 06 Feb 2017
    Views: 103
    Downloads: 1
    Asian Development Bank | February 2015
  • Developing the Financial Sector and Expanding Market Instruments to Support a Post-2015 Development Agenda in Asia and the Pacific

    Source: Rao, Vivek
    Date Submitted: 06 Feb 2017
    Views: 108
    Downloads: 0
    Rao, Vivek | March 2015
  • Estimating Dual Deposit Insurance Premium Rates and Forecasting Non-performing Loans: Two New Models

    Source: Yoshino, Naoyuki , Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, Nili, Farhad
    Date Submitted: 06 Feb 2017
    Views: 90
    Downloads: 0
    Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Nili, Farhad | January 2015
  • Bangladesh Steel Industry Review

    Source: Mohammad Asrarul Haque
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 475
    Downloads: 65
    Industry analysis is a part of EBLSL research product basket. The attached report contains the current market condition and competitive structure of the steel industry in Bangladesh. Besides, the report also contains a comparative review on the listed steel manufacturing companies in the capital market of Bangladesh.
  • Asian Development Bank and Sri Lanka: Fact Sheet

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 268
    Downloads: 5
    Asian Development Bank | April 2015
  • Asia SME Finance Monitor 2014

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 174
    Downloads: 3
    Asian Development Bank | September 2015
  • Financial Inclusion in Asia: An Overview

    Source: Ayyagari, Meghana, Beck, Thorsten
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 137
    Downloads: 2
    Ayyagari, Meghana; Beck, Thorsten | September 2015
  • How Does Financial Opening Affect Industrial Effi ciency? The Case of Foreign Bank Entry in the People’s Republic of China

    Source: , , Li, Ran, Huang, Yiping
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 230
    Downloads: 0
    Li, Ran; Huang, Yiping | April 2015
  • Tax Administration Reform in the Maldives

    Source: Bertsch, Natalie, Miyaki, Yuji, Serrat, Olivier
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 105
    Downloads: 0
    Bertsch, Natalie; Miyaki, Yuji; Serrat, Olivier | June 2015
  • Financial Soundness Indicators for Financial Sector Stability in Viet Nam

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 340
    Downloads: 3
    Asian Development Bank | September 2015
  • Asian Development Bank and Azerbaijan: Fact Sheet

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 92
    Downloads: 1
    Asian Development Bank | April 2015
  • Strengthening City Disaster Risk Financing in Viet Nam

    Source: Asian Development Bank
    Date Submitted: 04 Feb 2017
    Views: 274
    Downloads: 2
    Asian Development Bank | December 2015
  • The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View

    Source: Development, Center for Economic and Social
    Date Submitted: 03 Feb 2017
    Views: 127
    Downloads: 0
    Development, Center for Economic and Social | January 2015
  • Research and News Bulletin: January - March 2016

    Source: Haroon, Uzma T.
    Date Submitted: 03 Feb 2017
    Views: 342
    Downloads: 5
    Haroon, Uzma T. | April 2016
  • Housing Markets and Housing Policies in India

    Source: Tiwari, Piyush, Rao, Jyoti
    Date Submitted: 03 Feb 2017
    Views: 392
    Downloads: 13
    Tiwari, Piyush; Rao, Jyoti | April 2016
  • New Global Economic Architecture: An Asian Perspective

    Source: Rana, Pradumna Bickram, Mordecai, Aédán
    Date Submitted: 02 Feb 2017
    Views: 2058
    Downloads: 27
    Rana, Pradumna Bickram; Mordecai, Aédán | April 2016
  • Bridging the 'Missing Middle' between Microfinance and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Finance in South Asia

    Source: Shankar, Savita
    Date Submitted: 02 Feb 2017
    Views: 1732
    Downloads: 13
    Shankar, Savita | July 2016
  • Decline in Oil Prices and the Negative Interest Rate Policy in Japan

    Source: Yoshino, Naoyuki, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
    Date Submitted: 01 Feb 2017
    Views: 94
    Downloads: 2
    Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad | October 2016
  • Credit Surety Fund: A Credit Innovation for Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Philippines

    Source: Maningo, Gary V.
    Date Submitted: 01 Feb 2017
    Views: 257
    Downloads: 1
    Maningo, Gary V. | July 2016
  • 2015年我国上市银行基本情况分析

    Source:
    Date Submitted: 31 Jan 2017
    Views: 257
    Downloads: 10
    本报告选取26家上市银行为样本,以2013年至2015年经审计的年报为数据来源,从资产负债规模、收入结构、风险、机构改革、新技术应用等方面对上市银行基本情况进行分析。
  • Generating Alpha Using Economic Moats

    Source: Heather Brilliant, CFA
    Date Submitted: 31 Jan 2017
    Views: 215
    Downloads: 2
    This is the presentation powerpoint presented by Heather Brilliant at CFA Institute 7th India Investment Conference, on 13 January 2017.
  • Generating Alpha In A Divergent World: From Reflation To Stagflation

    Source: Peter Berezin
    Date Submitted: 31 Jan 2017
    Views: 249
    Downloads: 4
    This is the presentation powerpoint presented by Peter Berezin at CFA Institute 7th India Investment Conference, on 13 January 2017.
  • Year of the Rooster: A Trend Breaker?

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 31 Jan 2017
    Views: 109
    Downloads: 3
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 25 Jan 2017.
  • 【中国市场策略】鸡年大吉:顺流,逆流?

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 31 Jan 2017
    Views: 186
    Downloads: 4
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 25 Jan 2017.
  • How Risky has the World Become?

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 461
    Downloads: 0
    The world appears to have become a far riskier place. Since the GFC, we have encountered series shocks to the global economy including Greece crises (2010, 2013, 2015), European and US sovereign debt crises (2011), China growth slowdown (2012), EM, taper tantrum (2013), Russian financial crisis (2014), China equity bubble and devaluation (2015), China and US recession fears (2016), and Brexit (2016).
  • Lessons from Brexit: Co-Ordinated Monetary and Fiscal Policy?

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 218
    Downloads: 0
    Brexit has come and gone and little seems to remain of the fear that swept financial markets just two months ago. In the immediate aftermath of the shock decision by British voters to leave the EU, equity markets slumped by 6%, bond yields in most major markets fell on average by around 30 basis points (bps) and market volatility (as measured by the VIX) almost doubled.
  • The Australian June Quarter GDP Outlook

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 356
    Downloads: 0
    Next week, the release by the June quarter Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) of the National Accounts data will provide us with the most comprehensive snapshot of the health of the Australian economy. Compared with some other developed economies, such as the US, Australia has a relative lack of timely higher frequency official economic data, resulting in less clarity around the state of the economy until the release of the GDP data in the National Accounts.
  • The Amazing Australian Economy

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 351
    Downloads: 0
    This week, the release of the June quarter National Accounts data confirmed Australia’s record run of recession-free growth extended to 25 years. On a quarterly basis, the Australian economy grew by 0.5% (close to our and the consensus expectation of 0.6%) to lift the annual rate of growth from 3.0%, in the March quarter, to an above trend growth rate of 3.3%.
  • What Will Central Banks Do Next?

    Source: Drew Klease
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 211
    Downloads: 0
    Markets have had a tough time over the past week. Global developed equities dropped 2%, while the S&P/ASX 200 retreated 2.7%. Bond markets also sold-off, with 10-year government bond yields rising 9 basis points in the US and Germany and 25 basis points in Australia. Commodity prices retreated, with WTI crude oil down 8% over the week.
  • The Changing Shape of Macroeconomic Policy

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 261
    Downloads: 0
    In a watershed week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unveiled its new monetary policy regime and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the fed funds rate on hold, signalled a likely hike in December and produced a slightly more dovish outlook for rates and the economy. Markets have generally reacted positively to the BoJ’s and Fed’s decisions, with global equity prices rallying by 2%, oil prices up by 5%, market volatility (as measured by the VIX) down by over 25% and bond yields generally fell by around 7-18 basis points in most markets, except Japan, where the BoJ announced a zero target rate for the 10-year bond.
  • RBA On Hold Before the Real Decision Time Comes Next Year

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 207
    Downloads: 0
    Next Tuesday, incoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phil Lowe presides over his first RBA Board meeting. The meeting will be an easy introduction for the new Governor, with broad consensus among forecasters, commentators and QIC that the RBA will leave both the overnight cash rate (1.5%) and their forward guidance (neutral) unchanged. However, the Board’s October meeting (and most likely their November and December meetings) may well be the calm before the storm as 2017 shapes up to be a year of significant change for the Australian and global economies and for economic policy settings. Already, we have seen significant shifts in the direction of monetary policy in Japan, UK and the US and the spectre of a revival in fiscal expansion looming on the horizon.
  • New RBA Governor Leaves Rates on Hold in October, But Can He Hold Out in 2017?

    Source: Jimmy Louca
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 331
    Downloads: 0
    At the first board meeting under new Governor Phil Lowe, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged, as expected. More importantly, the fact the statement read very similar to last month highlighted the change at the top has not changed the RBA’s fundamental view – that is, having stepped in earlier this year to support growth, its pencils down for 2016. Indeed, the statement’s conclusion was identical to last month: ‘having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time’.
  • Deja Vu? Trump Unlikely to Win, But That's What We Thought About Brexit

    Source: Drew Klease
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 223
    Downloads: 0
    The chances of Donald Trump becoming the next President of the United States took a hammering over the past week following his much-publicised vulgar comments. While it is looking increasingly likely that Hillary Clinton will become the first female President, we must remind ourselves that elections can throw up surprising results. Less than four months ago, it looked increasingly likely that the UK was going to vote to remain in the EU; however, polls, betting agencies, expert commentators and markets all got that outcome wrong.
  • Should the RBA be Worried About the Labour Market

    Source: Jimmy Louca
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 233
    Downloads: 0
    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will ponder two important releases when its Board meets in November: this week’s employment report and next week’s Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI). On first blush, the labour market appears in good health. This week showed that the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in September, a three-year low and down on a recent peak of 6.3% just last July. However, we argue that on broader measures the labour market has lost momentum and that this would be of increasing concern to the RBA.
  • RBA Unlikely to Deliver Melbourne Cup Day Rate Cut But Underlying Inflation Still a Worry

    Source: Jimmy Louca
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 291
    Downloads: 0
    The chance of a rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets next Tuesday on Melbourne cup day has diminished after the release of the third quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. A lower than expected print was seen as the last potential catalyst to force the RBA into action before year’s end. However, headline inflation surprised on the high side. The CPI rose 0.7%, well above market expectations for a 0.5% gain, but slightly below our 0.8% forecast. The quarterly result also lifted the annual headline rate from an 18-year low of 1.0% to 1.3% in the third quarter, providing some tentative signs that inflation may have troughed.
  • What Happens If Donald Gets In?

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 213
    Downloads: 0
    As the US Presidential elections approach, polls are showing that the two candidates are running neck and neck. A Trump victory, that seemed so unlikely three weeks ago, is now a fifty/fifty bet. What would happen to the US and the global economy in the advent of a Trump administration?
  • US Presidential Election: Market Reactions and Economic Consequences

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 408
    Downloads: 0
    America’s marathon presidential election, which kicked off last year with the party primaries, remains unresolved at the time of writing. However, Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has significantly outperformed pollsters’ expectations by leading in a clutch of swing states including Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan.
  • What Happens Now That Donald Is in?

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 192
    Downloads: 0
    Now that Donald Trump has been elected to be the 45th President of the United States, what can we expect from the economy and financial markets? In last week’s Brief (What happen's if Donald gets in?), we speculated on the impact on the global economy and financial market responses in the wake of a Trump victory. This week, we check in to see how markets are tracking in the immediate aftermath on the election. Even though it is far too early to establish trends, we look at market movements over the last couple of days and assess how consistent they have been with a typical risk-off event and how consistent they may be with an evaluation of the effect that Trump’s policies may have. Financial markets reacted swiftly as Trump closed in on the White House in a classic risk-off pattern. US S&P 500 futures dropped a limit-down 5%, with a similar sized drop recorded in Japanese equities during Asian trading and a 1.9% decline in the S&P/ASX 200. The Mexican Peso fell sharply, dropping 13% against the US dollar, as markets began to factor in increased protectionism and trade tensions between the US and its southern neighbour. The US dollar weakened around 2% against a basket of major currencies; this included a 2% move lower against the euro and a 3% drop against the Japanese yen.
  • First Brexit, Then Trump...Who's Next?

    Source: Drew Klease
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 201
    Downloads: 0
    2016 has witnessed some surprise election results. Polls, betting agencies, markets and pundits have all failed to predict the swelling support for populist politics. First, there was BREXIT, then Trump; not to mention the marked swing towards One Nation and the Xenophon Team in Australia’s federal election in between. Clearly, there is a growing discontent among many voters around the world.
  • Markets Vote for Trump

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 218
    Downloads: 0
    Since Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections, US 10-year government bond yields have risen by around 50 basis points (bps), US 10-year breakeven inflation rates have risen by around 20bps and US 10-year real yields (as measured by indexed linked bonds) have risen by around 30bps. At the same time, US equities have risen by around 3% and the US dollar has appreciated by around 4% against most major currencies; including the Australian dollar.
  • A Cornered RBA Has Little Room for Manoeuvre

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 195
    Downloads: 0
    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has little choice other than to leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.5% at its last Board meeting for 2016 next Tuesday. There is unanimous agreement among professional forecasters with all 28 members of Bloomberg’s expert panel, including QIC, expecting the RBA to keep rates on hold, while financial markets are pricing a 98% probability of rates remaining on hold with only a 2% chance of a rate cut.
  • Why is the Australian Economy Out of Sync

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 266
    Downloads: 0
    This week, the release of the national accounts data showed that the Australian economy contracted by 0.5% (-2.0% annualised) over the September quarter; the economy’s worst quarterly performance since the onset of the GFC. Not only is this a very poor growth outcome relative to our historical performance, it places us towards the back of the pack of our developed economy peers.
  • Is the FED Factoring in Trump?

    Source: Matthew Peter
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 226
    Downloads: 0
    At its last FOMC meeting for 2016, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered on its long telegraphed rate rise. The Fed raised the band of the fed funds rate by 25 basis points from 0.25%-0.50% to 0.50%-0.75%, giving an effective fed funds rate of around 0.625%.
  • Vale 2016...

    Source:
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 411
    Downloads: 0
    As QIC’s Managing Director of Multi Assets, Jim Christensen, puts it, “If I had told you at the start of 2016 that the UK would leave the European Union, Donald Trump would be elected US President, that euro-sceptic parties may gain power in Italy, France and Netherlands, and the share of major sovereign bonds that had negative yields would rise from less than 5% in mid-2015 to more than 40% by mid-2016, would you have believed me if I also told you that equity markets would rally by around 10%, market volatility would fall by around 30% and that US bond yields would rise by 30 basis points?”
  • China Bears to Calm Down

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 225
    Downloads: 0
    Then paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s launch of China’s Open Door policy in 1978, after decades of Maoist isolation, ranks among the seminal geo-political developments of the past half century.
  • ECB Not to Turn Japanese

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 204
    Downloads: 0
    The European Central Bank (EBC) recently announced measures to counter low inflationary trends. Here we look at the implications for global markets.
  • Crunch Time for European Banking

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 199
    Downloads: 0
    As European regulators approach the final stages of their efforts to restore credibility to the region’s banking sector, we look at the implications for credit markets and European bank lending.
  • Inflation Protection For Christmas

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 192
    Downloads: 0
    The ‘Happy Season’ is not usually associated with bargains. Quite the opposite. Spending up is the norm and indulging is portrayed as a virtue.
  • Re-Thinking Asset Allocation Models

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 371
    Downloads: 0
    The stylised traditional asset allocation model – with around 60 per cent of the portfolio devoted to growth assets dominated by listed equities and 40 per cent to defensive assets significantly weighted to government bonds – has served investors well over many years notwithstanding bumps along the way. But no investment idea is sacrosanct.
  • Corporates: The Yield Quencher

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 390
    Downloads: 0
    Superannuation funds’ return objectives will become harder to hit through beta alone on the heels of an intensification of the ECB’s quantitative easing program and a clutch of central bank interest rate cuts. Selective credit market investments, including high-yield investments in the beaten-up US energy sector offer potentially attractive risk-adjusted returns and can go some way towards helping funds meet their overall return objectives.
  • Australia's Housing Boom: Reports of Bubble are Overblown

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 383
    Downloads: 0
    Low interest rates have pumped up Australian house prices, leading to concerns that not only is housing across the nation becoming less affordable, but the boom will meet its eventual bust. However, we believe the housing cycle over the next few years is likely to play out differently from this worst-case scenario.
  • Australia Maintains Credit Rating But Fiscal Policy is a Drag: Ideas for a Better Budget Mix

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 232
    Downloads: 0
    On the heels of a sharp public reaction to last year’s budget, the Federal Government’s prescription this year focused on growth and assistance for low-to-middle income earners. There was a small expansion in the deficit but the budget is still projected to return to surplus by 2019-20. In our view there is not much good news, but also no real bad news. Here is our analysis.
  • China: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 294
    Downloads: 0
    China’s annual economic growth has slipped to around 7 per cent and is facing an increasingly uncertain outlook. We envisage three broad potential scenarios for China: the good, the bad and the ugly.
  • Yuan Devaluation No Cause for New Global Currency War

    Source: Dr Matthew Peter, Drew Klease CFA, Jimmy Louca CFA
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 232
    Downloads: 0
    The world may have qualified reasons to welcome yuan devaluation if Chinese policymakers’ assertions are taken at face value – that shifting the yuan’s price setting towards market forces is the sole motivation.
  • Widening Credit Spreads: Recession or Opportunity Ahead?

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 230
    Downloads: 0
    The purported ancient Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” is an appropriate starting point for a conversation about the current state of credit markets.
  • A Holiday from Volatility

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 224
    Downloads: 0
    Investment markets are displaying all the signs of ‘cognitive dissonance.’ Psychologists describe cognitive dissonance as the tension that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts at the same time. Dissonance is especially acute when people act against strongly held beliefs like smoking even when they know it’s harmful.
  • Corporate Credits Come to Fore in Liquidity-Challenged World

    Source: Stephen Holmes, Katrina King
    Date Submitted: 28 Dec 2016
    Views: 324
    Downloads: 0
    A great deal of investment industry commentary these days reads like a tale of woe. High on the list of complaints is overbearing regulation that has drastically reduced liquidity and made it harder and costlier to trade. There is no force majeure clause to get investment professionals off the hook. Institutional clients and those they serve – members of superannuation funds, retirement plans and savers – continue to require good returns and we believe pockets of opportunity do exist. Corporate credits are a prime example, in our view. The greater liquidity risk is being compensated by a higher premium assigned to corporate bond yields. For investors that don’t require instant liquidity or are unencumbered by mark-to-market pressure, the current higher premium demanded for “illiquidity risk” presents an opportunity to experience a form of financial schadenfreude – to gain satisfaction from others’ misfortune. There is an important caveat to keep in mind. Credit-investing, even in quality names, is a far cry from set-and-forget investing. A blasé attitude is the antithesis of successful credit investing. Watchful eyes – active monitoring – must be ever present.
  • Get Ready for Interest Rate Lift-Off

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 246
    Downloads: 0
    ‘Be careful’ seem to be the words of warning that the Bank of England (BOE) and the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) have in mind for households, financial institutions and investors. After almost six years of extraordinarily accommodative monetary policies to nurse the UK and US economies, the end of the interest rate holiday seems near.
  • Quarterly Market Review: Volatility Returns with a Vengeance

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 223
    Downloads: 0
    After two years of relative calm, global financial markets have come under renewed pressure in recent months. Concerns over a potential hard-landing in the Chinese economy and fears of an emerging market crisis intensified in the September quarter, weighing on all major markets.
  • America's Extended Interest Rate Holiday Finally Ends

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 225
    Downloads: 0
    The United States Federal Reserve voted this morning (Australia time) to raise interest rates and begin pulling back its unprecedented support for the American economy, ending an era of easy money that helped save the world’s largest economy from potentially another Great Depression but has yet to produce a full-throttled recovery.
  • The New Silk Road - Shifting the Economic Centre of the World East

    Source: QIC
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 577
    Downloads: 0
    The New Silk Road, which is a short-hand descriptor for the shift of global economic power from the West to the China-driven East, was one of the five megatrends discussed.
  • Brexit - Mood is Risk-Off and Odds Are Shortening

    Source: Katrina King
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 261
    Downloads: 0
    Uncertainty is the enemy of efficient markets, and the impending vote on whether the United Kingdom will ‘remain’ in the European Union or exit (Brexit) will stir considerable volatility no matter the outcome.
  • Weak And Vulnerable

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 331
    Downloads: 0
    The US economy remains weak and vulnerable. The new Macro Watch video explains why. The economy is weak because credit growth remains too sluggish to drive the economy as it did in the past. With interest rates near record low levels, credit should be expanding much more quickly than it is. In this video, we look at credit growth on a sector by sector basis, and project growth rates out to the end of 2017. While there has been some improvement since the last Macro Watch Credit Update six months ago, there has not been enough. The outlook for the economy remains depressed. The economy is vulnerable because if interest rates now begin to rise, credit growth would slow and the economy would fall back into recession. Worse still, any inflation shock – such as the one that would result from the imposition of trade tariffs – would cause interest rates to soar and the economy to plunge into a severe Depression. The unfortunate truth is that the economy remains on government life support. It still depends on government borrowing and interest rates held at ultra low levels by central bank intervention. Here’s one interesting example: the government has been providing “stealth stimulus” to the economy by aggressively financing Student Loans since soon after the economic crisis began. As a result, the government now owns 73% of all student loans. For decades, Credit Growth Has Driven Economic Growth. If you are a Macro Watch subscriber, log in now and watch the latest credit update. You will see why the US economic slump will not end soon.
  • Derivatives Reform: Real or Razzmatazz?

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 453
    Downloads: 0
    Eight years after the near implosion of the international financial system came close to plunging the world into a New Great Depression, and six years after the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protections Act became law, Half A Quadrillion Dollars worth of derivatives contracts are still trading Over-The-Counter (OTC) with limited transparency and insufficient oversight. The latest Macro Watch video examines what progress has been made in reducing the threat posed by these “financial weapons of mass destruction”. We begin by asking why derivatives were deregulated in the first place. Was it simply stupidity? Was it greed and political corruption? Or was there more to it than that? Next we see a breakdown of the participants in the OTC derivatives market today. We find that non-financial customers hold only 5% of all contracts, while financial institutions hold 95%. That raises questions about the effectiveness of the Volcker Rule, which was intended to limit proprietary trading by banks. Finally, we look at the post-crisis derivatives reform agenda, both in the United States and at the international level. What we find is that reform progress has been glacial and that the risk to the global economy posed by hundreds of trillions of dollars of derivatives contracts remains very high.
  • Derivatives Reform Razzle-Dazzle

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 226
    Downloads: 0
    Derivatives Reform is enormously important for the future of our economic system for two reasons. First, without the enforcement of effective reform, we cannot be certain that our largest financial institutions are solvent. We now know that if any one of them fails, they will all fail. We also know that a systemic financial sector collapse would result in a new global Great Depression. Second, without full transparency, we cannot know if prices are being determined fairly by the forces of real supply and demand or if they are being manipulated by banks, corporations and/or governments. Without transparency, commodity prices, interest rates and currency values can all be easily controlled behind a wall of trillions of dollars worth of contracts that no one can see through. Eight years after a financial sector meltdown that brought the world to the brink of a New Great Depression, and six years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act, in my opinion, the derivatives market, still $550 trillion in size, is just as much a threat to the global economy now as it was in 2008. Furthermore, the ability to use OTC derivatives to manipulate interest rates, currency values and commodity prices remains largely undiminished. Laws have been enacted to make the derivatives market safer, but implementation has been glacial. Thus far the actual effectiveness of trade reporting, central clearing and margin requirements is extremely limited. Whether the risks to the global economy created by hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of OTC derivatives is really reduced during the years ahead will depend on government enforcement of the spirit and the letter of the law. Unfortunately, in late 2016, it is still unclear whether the government is regulating the banks or if the banks are regulating the government. Only time will tell whether the reforms will ever actually be enforced or whether all the noise about reform is only razzle-dazzle designed to distract the public while business continues as usual. So far, it seems to me that it’s still business as usual.
  • President Trump, You Can Make America’s Economy Great Again. Here’s How

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 206
    Downloads: 0
    I have just uploaded a Macro Watch video in the form of a presentation to President-elect Trump. This is the most important video I have ever made. Here’s how it begins: President Trump, You CAN make America’s economy great again. Here’s how: INVEST, Mr. President – not only in infrastructure but also in the industries and technologies of the future. You have been elected President at a unique moment in history that gives the government of the United States the ability to borrow and invest in the US economy on a scale not only large enough to rebuild America’s infrastructure, but large enough to also induce a new technological revolution that would restructure the entire economy and make it great again, greater than ever! If you grasp this opportunity, the United States will have unassailable supremacy in the industries of the future; you will lock in another American Century; and you will improve the well being of every American – and the well being of every person on this planet. However, you have also been elected at a time when the global economy is in grave danger of collapsing into a depression, one from which it might not recover for decades – if ever. One misstep on your part and instead of making the economy great again, you will make the Great Depression again. Here’s what you need to know and to act on to succeed. The global economy is an enormous economic bubble that has been inflated by Credit. If the Credit contracts, the bubble will pop and the New Great Depression will begin. If interest rates go up significantly, the bubble will pop and the New Great Depression will begin. One wrong move on your part and the economy will spiral out of control into a depression. It won’t be a short and sharp depression like 1921. It will be long and devastating like 1929 to 1945. That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news. You are absolutely right to call for government investment in infrastructure. DON’T STOP THERE. During your administration, the government can borrow and invest trillions of dollars in the US economy without causing inflation. The combination of Globalization and Fiat Money makes this possible. You not only have the opportunity to rebuild American infrastructure so that it is second to none as you promised to do in your victory speech. You also have the opportunity to invest in 21st century industries and technologies on a scale that is too big to fail, thereby guaranteeing that the United States remains the most prosperous and powerful country in the world for many decades to come. In the past, the government could not run large budget deficits without causing high rates of destabilizing inflation. Today, the United States government can borrow and invest many trillions of dollars at little to no cost – and do so without causing inflation. In this presentation, I’ll explain why. I’ll also describe the kind of government investment that is required to pull the United States and the world out of this economic crisis – and the extraordinary benefits that such investments would produce.
  • Trump’s Recipe For Disaster

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 27 Dec 2016
    Views: 208
    Downloads: 0
    The global economic bubble came very close to collapsing into a new Great Depression in 2008. That disaster was prevented by ultra loose Monetary Policy. Central banks slashed short-term interest rates to very close to 0% and then “printed” trillions of dollars worth of new money and used it to buy financial assets. That strategy allowed credit to expand and caused asset prices to soar, thereby reflating the global economic bubble and staving off economic collapse. What happens next will depend on interest rates. If interest rates rise significantly, credit will contract, asset prices will plunge and the economy will spiral into crisis.
  • Major Banks to Feel the Pinch of Rating Pressure - What Opportunities for Credit Investors?

    Source: Philip Miall, Katrina King
    Date Submitted: 26 Dec 2016
    Views: 478
    Downloads: 0
    Australia’s hold on its AAA credit rating is under pressure after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) moved the country’s sovereign rating from ‘stable outlook’ to ‘negative outlook’. There have long been fears the country’s persistent budget deficits would drive a downgrade, but for S&P the recent Federal election tipped the scales—the rating agency expressed grave doubts about the re-elected government’s ability to legislate sufficient savings or revenue measures. Australia now has a 1 in 3 chance of being downgraded within the next 2 years, but in our view a downgrade would have little material impact on the price of government bonds, or its borrowing costs. It would instead be the country’s major banks that would be impacted. Westpac, CBA, NAB and ANZ have already seen their S&P ratings shift from AA- stable, to AA- negative as they risk losing one of their two notches of rating uplift that stems from the government’s support. The move was widely anticipated, major bank credit spreads only modestly underperformed in the days following the negative outlook shift. But the widening will continue if they’re eventually downgraded. Since the announcement both the Australian dollar and the big banks’ share prices have strengthened, and the government’s ten-year bond yield has remained at all-time lows.
  • 我国民营银行试点现状、面临问题 与政策建议

    Source: 王刚
    Date Submitted: 18 Dec 2016
    Views: 507
    Downloads: 9
    国务院发展研究中心招标课题 《我国新型民营银行稳健发展与有效监管研究》课题组 课题负责人:王刚 课题组成员:王刚、陈宁、薄岩、张伟 王刚、陈宁、薄岩 执笔
  • AFM -- Market Transparency and Pricing Efficiency: Evidence from Corporate Bond Market

    Source: Jia Chen, Ruichang Lu
    Date Submitted: 08 Dec 2016
    Views: 292
    Downloads: 10
    This paper investigates how mandatory post-trade market transparency affects pricing efficiency in the corporate bond market. Using the phase implementation of TRACE and a differences-in-differences research design, we find that when market transparency is greater, bond prices incorporate information quicker but contain less amount of bond-specific information. Specifically, greater market transparency leads to a shorter return drift and a lower price delay. These effects are similar for different liquidity, trading activity, and maturity subgroups. In contrast, greater market transparency leads to fewer bond analyst reports and higher co-movement between individual bond returns and market returns. These results highlight that market transparency has opposite impact on two dimensions of pricing efficiency, speed of information incorporation and amount of information incorporated in prices.
  • 【China Market Strategy】Outlook 2017: High-Wire Act

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Dec 2016
    Views: 2264
    Downloads: 12
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 4 December 2016.
  • 【中国市场策略】2017年展望:微妙的平衡

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Dec 2016
    Views: 507
    Downloads: 12
    This research appears on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 4 December 2016.
  • Some Preliminary Evidence on Stock Price Bubbles in an Emerging Market

    Source: Nawazish Mirza, PhD, Ayesha Afzal, PhD
    Date Submitted: 06 Dec 2016
    Views: 467
    Downloads: 0
    This paper analyzes the presence of a speculative component during the extra ordinary upsurge in Karachi Stock Exchange. We implement cointegration tests, between 1997 and 2008, on price and dividends of various market and sectoral indices. The no bubble hypothesis could not be rejected for market level indices establishing the presence of a speculative factor. Among sectoral indices, banking sector depicted a speculative component, however, the price level of Oil and Gas sector did not diverge from the related dividends. These results remained robust with evidence of persistent volatility shocks for the sample period.
  • AFBC - Correlated Volatility Shocks

    Source: Xiao Qiao, Yongning Wang
    Date Submitted: 16 Nov 2016
    Views: 222
    Downloads: 3
    Commonality in idiosyncratic volatility can be decomposed into two components, both of which are priced in the cross section. We propose a multivariate GARCH model to fit the data.
  • AFM - Private Information in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Mutual Funds and Corporate Insiders

    Source: Yeguang Chi
    Date Submitted: 16 Nov 2016
    Views: 737
    Downloads: 29
    Private Information in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Mutual Funds and Corporate Insiders
  • AFBC - Slack-based directional distance function in the presence of bad outputs: Theory and Application to Vietnamese Banking

    Source: Manh D. Pham, Valentin Zelenyuk
    Date Submitted: 15 Nov 2016
    Views: 246
    Downloads: 5
    Slack-based directional distance function in the presence of bad outputs: Theory and Application to Vietnamese Banking
  • Momentum Life Cycle around the World and Beyond

    Source: Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei
    Date Submitted: 15 Nov 2016
    Views: 302
    Downloads: 4
    Buying low turnover winner stocks and shorting high turnover loser stocks (early-stage momentum) improves significantly over simple momentum strategies in 36 countries.
  • AFBC-Information environment, systematic volatility and stock return synchronicity

    Source: Wang Jing
    Date Submitted: 15 Nov 2016
    Views: 422
    Downloads: 36
    Australasian Finance and Banking Conference Submission
  • 号外 - 价格的革命 | 对全球资产配置的思考(中文版)

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Nov 2016
    Views: 266
    Downloads: 4
    This research report is published on 14 November 2016 by BOCOM.
  • A Price Revolution – On Global Asset Allocation

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Nov 2016
    Views: 427
    Downloads: 20
    This research report is published on 14 November 2016 by BOCOM.
  • Global Asset Allocation Trends

    Source: Aaron Low, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Nov 2016
    Views: 387
    Downloads: 13
    2016 CFA China Conference
  • AFBC-Synthetic Shorting with ETFs

    Source: Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu
    Date Submitted: 10 Nov 2016
    Views: 301
    Downloads: 4
    We provide novel evidence that arbitrageurs use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an avenue to circumvent short-sale constraints at the stock level. Using a large sample of U.S. equity ETF holdings, we document that shorting activity on ETFs rises with the difficulty of shorting the underlying stocks. Stocks that are heavily shorted via their holding ETFs underperform those lightly shorted by 94 basis points per month. The return predictability of ETF short selling on individual stocks is distinct from stock-level shorting measures, and is concentrated among stocks that face the most severe arbitrage constraints. Across a broad set of capital market anomalies, we find that anomaly returns are signi ficantly attenuated when ETF ownership is high. Our evidence suggests that ETFs contribute to a more informationally efficient market by allowing arbitrageurs to target overpriced stocks that are otherwise difficult to short.
  • HKUST Risk Management and Business Intellegence (RMBI) Newsletter Issue 7

    Source: Chow Miu Lam, Hui Sin Hang, Tsang Wing Wah, Lee Kwok Ho, Tam Kiu Fai
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2016
    Views: 389
    Downloads: 0
    Risk Management in the Medical Sector. Risk Management can bring a better decision making and reduce the number of errors, so as to ensure a high quality and effective service being provided. In the past 20 years, the hongkong Hospital Authority (HA) showed great support to develop large scale computer-based systems to manage and reduce the risk within the healthcare sector. To have a deeper understadning on how the systems work, we have invited Dr. CP Wong, Chairman of Society of Medical Informatics Ltd to share with us the success and benefits in risk managment in Hong Kong public hospitals. Safety and Risk Managemnt in the Railway Industry. As an industry with over 15,000 employees, the railway industry is inevitably at risk for human mistakes, leading to a need for risk management measures to reduce operational errors in order to achieve its customer pledge. Let's examine this under serveral issues: benmarking, drivers' training and selection, and risk management and risk identification.
  • HKUST Risk Management and Business Intellegence (RMBI) Newsletter Issue 8

    Source: Wong Yuen Man, Wong Cheuk Fun
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2016
    Views: 440
    Downloads: 0
    Humans always learn from history and our students should also learn from the past. This is the first time a case study is used as the main topic in the RMBI Newsletter series.London Whale Risk in 2012 is chosen as the topic of this chapter. This issue mainly focuses on the risks involved, including operational risks, analysis of VAR modeling aswell asthe influence of the Basel regulatory stan­ dard.
  • Emerging market equities: an Australian perspective

    Source: Daniel Radcliffe, Geoff Warren
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2016
    Views: 358
    Downloads: 5
    Examines investing in emerging markets from an Australian perspective; noting how currency relationships reduce risk for Australian investors.
  • Evaluating Fund Capacity: Issues and Methods

    Source: Michael O'Neill, Geoff Warren
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2016
    Views: 199
    Downloads: 0
    Examines the issues and methods for evaluating the capacity of a fund that invests on an investment signal. Discusses how capacity is defined; identifies ten drivers; and outlines approaches for conducting capacity analysis.
  • The Impact of Broker Market Structure on Stock Liquidity

    Source: Wai-man (Raymond) Liu, Joshua Soo, Geoff Warren
    Date Submitted: 07 Nov 2016
    Views: 182
    Downloads: 0
    Investigates the extent to which the liquidity of Australian stocks is affected by the market structure under which stockbrokers provide a combination of stock trading, research, and investment banking services.
  • Alert to the Possibilty of being Trump-ed

    Source: Frontier Research
    Date Submitted: 03 Nov 2016
    Views: 205
    Downloads: 1
    A brief overview of the implications a possible Trump Presidency would have on the economic prospects and financial markets of emerging markets.
  • HKUST Risk Management and Business Intellegence (RMBI) Newsletter Issue 9

    Source: Wong Yuen Man, Kwong Wing Man, Chan Ling Fung, Lo Ka Chun, Ng Wing Leong, Tam Kiu Fai, Lee Tung Kiu, Lee Kwok Ho
    Date Submitted: 02 Nov 2016
    Views: 410
    Downloads: 0
    In this issue, we discuss about the current situation of Hong Kong's Logistics Industry, including ogictics business cycle and its embbeded risk, big data and new technologies, as well as the future development and suggestions to the logistics industry. Basel III, the histroy and its evolution, impact on locan banks and lessons leanred from overseas.
  • Crises and Central Banks

    Source: Ishwar Chidambaram
    Date Submitted: 02 Nov 2016
    Views: 3422
    Downloads: 286
    A post-crisis look at the increasingly fragmented monetary policies of global Central Banks and the implications for Main Street
  • A股溢价难维系,港股也非估值洼地

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 364
    Downloads: 1
    This article appeared on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 26 September 2016.
  • Asia & The Slump In World Trade

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 482
    Downloads: 0
    Asia is being hit hard by the slump in world trade that has resulted from the sharp economic slowdown in China. In the latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today, we take a look at the impact this trade crash is having on seven Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. For each country, we look at: Exports Imports The Current Account Balance Inflation GDP The Currency, and The Stock Market Exports and imports have both plunged. Thus far, however, economic growth and stock prices have held up better than would have been expected. Currencies have been the big losers. With no end in sight for the recession in China, the outlook for the rest of Asia is discouraging. Many countries are likely to fall into recession and deflation. Stocks will probably fall further. And currencies look to have further to depreciate, especially if the Fed hikes interest rates or if China devalues its currency again. Vietnam alone stands out as the exception. Its economic prospects appear much more promising.
  • Diversity in Finance: It Matters

    Source: Barbara Stewart, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 591
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 26 September 2016.
  • 100 Small Steps: Will India’s Bank Licenses Bring Reform?

    Source: Shreenivas Kunte, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 343
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 30 September 2016.
  • Innovations in access to finance for SMEs

    Source: Global Forum for SMEs
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 281
    Downloads: 2
    This paper reviews a broad range of innovations in business financing and highlights examples of good practice in developed and emerging economies.
  • A new breed of adviser for the modern-day enterprise

    Source: Global Forum for SMEs
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 218
    Downloads: 0
    This discussion paper presents views and recommendations on the growing implications, for both the finance profession and aspiring entrepreneurs, of the changing business landscape.
  • Ending late payment, part 3: reflections on the evidence

    Source: Manos Schizas
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 198
    Downloads: 0
    In 2014, ACCA conducted a review of the widespread problem of late payment; a life-threatening challenge for many businesses globally. This review bought together recent ACCA research with the experience of ACCA members and other finance professionals to examine potential solutions.
  • Ending late payment, part 2: what works?

    Source: Manos Schizas
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 210
    Downloads: 0
    In 2014, ACCA conducted a review of the widespread problem of late payment; a life-threatening challenge for many businesses globally. This review bought together recent ACCA research with the experience of ACCA members and other finance professionals to examine potential solutions.
  • Ending late payment, part 1: taking stock

    Source: Manos Schizas
    Date Submitted: 14 Oct 2016
    Views: 217
    Downloads: 0
    In 2014, ACCA conducted a review of the widespread problem of late payment; a life-threatening challenge for many businesses globally. This review bought together recent ACCA research with the experience of ACCA members and other finance professionals to examine potential solutions.
  • AFBC-A Model-Free Tail Index and Its Return Predictability

    Source: Jinji Hao
    Date Submitted: 06 Oct 2016
    Views: 193
    Downloads: 4
    This paper provides a novel framework for studying market risk. A tail index for extreme market risk is proposed and its innovation is shown to have strong predictive power of future monthly market returns.
  • AFBC - Dynamic conditional correlation between Chinese sector returns and the S&P500 index: An interpretation based on investment shocks

    Source: Lingxia Sun, Myeong Hyeon Kim
    Date Submitted: 30 Sep 2016
    Views: 259
    Downloads: 3
    This paper examines the dynamic conditional correlations between the Chinese sector returns and the S&P500 index returns and o ffers an interpretation for the heterogeneity of sector-level return correlations. Using a sample of 12 Chinese sectors for the period of 2006-2014, we first observe that their conditional correlations with the S&P500 index vary signi cantly across sectors and across the two crises, namely, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis and the 2010-2011 European Debt Crisis. We then interpret the heterogeneity of sector-level conditional correlations as arising from their heterogeneous sensitivities to investment shocks. We finally verify our interpretation. Our main finding is that sector-level investment opportunities, as proxied by book-to-market ratio, capital expenditure, long-term debt ratio, growth rate of industry size, and Tobin's Q, are signifi cantly associated with the magnitude of their dynamic conditional correlations. This paper thereby advances our understanding of sectoral heterogeneities from the perspective of their responses to an outer investment shock.
  • 最拥挤的交易(中文版)

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 19 Sep 2016
    Views: 387
    Downloads: 8
    This article appear on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 13 September 2016.
  • 最拥挤的交易 (English Version)

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 19 Sep 2016
    Views: 253
    Downloads: 1
    This article appear on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 12 September 2016.
  • AFBC – Private Information in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Mutual Funds and Corporate Insiders

    Source: Yeguang Chi
    Date Submitted: 19 Sep 2016
    Views: 933
    Downloads: 60
    Title: Private Information in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Mutual Funds and Corporate Insiders
  • The Global Equity Premium Revisited: What Human Rights Imply for Assets' Purchasing Power

    Source: Jedrzej Bialkowski, Ehud I. Ronn
    Date Submitted: 18 Sep 2016
    Views: 17
    Downloads: 0
    In this paper, we argue that past computations equity risk premium did not properly account for the financial implications of political collapse on property/civil/human rights. Accordingly, we show that past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide an estimate of the equity risk premium that is corrected for lack of basic rights, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.
  • CNMC Goldmine - Debunking the myth that investing in gold does not yield dividends

    Source: Joshua Wu
    Date Submitted: 10 Sep 2016
    Views: 212
    Downloads: 5
    In my view, Gold should always have a place in one's portfolio and the shiny metal's recent recovery off the lows has investors sitting up and taking notice of it again. There are several ways to invest in gold. 1) Physical – Probably the easiest and most direct way to invest in gold is through ownership of the metal itself although investors must keep certain considerations in mind such as storage costs and wide bid/ask spreads quoted by gold traders. 2) Gold ETFs – An ETF is a type of mutual fund that tracks gold prices closely and trades on a stock exchange like an ordinary stock. This remains the recommended option for most retail investors 3) Gold stocks – shares of gold mining companies are a risky way to profit from the direction of gold prices and require thorough analysis. Correlation and idiosyncratic risks are also present here as you are subject to changes affecting the specific company and not just the gold industry as a whole. 4) Gold futures & options – the riskiest way to invest in gold, this option is normally not open to retail investors as they have to pass a test or demonstrate sound investment knowledge before being allowed to participate. As an avid investor in equities, option no. 3 appealed to me the most as it allows me to hedge my portfolio exposure on the same platform. (gold is commonly seen as a safe haven asset when equities are underperforming). Today we will have a look at one such undervalued and profitable gold mining company.
  • How My Career Shaped My Views On The Global Economy

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 08 Sep 2016
    Views: 393
    Downloads: 0
    In the new Macro Watch video uploaded today, I describe how my 30-year career in the investment industry has shaped my views on what drives the global economy and the financial markets. There have been several important “aha” moments:
  • Death Spiral? Make That Plural

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 08 Sep 2016
    Views: 459
    Downloads: 0
    Last week Citi made headlines by publishing a report claiming the global economy is trapped in a “Death Spiral”. The timing of the report was perfect. Financial markets were in full PANIC! Oil fell to $26 per barrel, 10-year US government bond yields dropped to 1.52%, the MSCI World Equity Index fell into a bear market down 20% from its peak and bank shares in Europe and the US crashed as investors began to question the banking industry’s solvency in a negative interest rate world.
  • Negative Interest Rates: How Did This Happen?

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 08 Sep 2016
    Views: 375
    Downloads: 0
    Until recently, negative interest rates were considered inconceivable. Now, however, $7 trillion worth of bonds are trading at negative yields. That means the owners of those bonds are guaranteed to lose money unless interest rates plunge even further. The latest Macro Watch video, uploaded today, explains how this disaster came about. There are five reasons interest rates have fallen into negative territory: - Globalization circumvents the domestic bottlenecks that used to cause inflation. - Manufacturing in ultra low wage countries drives down the cost of production and product prices. - Fiat money creation produces an economic boom that creates excess capacity and falling product prices. - Fiat money creation changes the Supply and Demand balance for Money and pushes down yields. - The imposition of a Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by some central banks puts downward pressure on all interest rates. Thus far, five central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, have imposed negative interest rates on the reserves commercial banks hold on deposit at those central banks. Fears are growing that the Fed also intends to introduce a Negative Interest Rate Policy.
  • From China’s Economic Crisis to America’s Political Crisis, The Financial Sense Podcast

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 716
    Downloads: 0
    I recently had a great, wide-ranging conversation with Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense Newshour. We began with the economic crisis in China and moved on to the political crisis in the United States, discussing the market implications of both – and much more. It’s a good interview. I hope you will take the time to listen to it now. Here are some of the topics addressed: - China’s economic hard landing began in 2015. (Macro Watch is now publishing a series of videos on the economic crisis in China.) - The two insurmountable obstacles China’s economy is facing. - China’s Yuan devaluation blackmail. - The Dollar Standard Boom and Bust (1980 to 2016) - The Revolution in American Politics. - The American backlash against free trade. - The possibility that protectionism will cause a burst of inflation that will pop the global economic bubble. - A better way to boost global aggregate demand. - The most important thing to understand to invest successfully. - Helicopter Money. - Why the overvalued stock market won’t crash. - A better investment than gold.
  • China’s Economic Crisis, Part 4: One World Is Not Enough

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 401
    Downloads: 0
    China’s economy is freakishly unbalanced. Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) makes up 44% of China’s GDP, whereas Household Consumption makes up only 38% of GDP. For the world as a whole, Investment makes up just 24% of global GDP, while Household Consumption makes up 57%. Perhaps not since the Pharaohs built the Pyramids with slave labor has Investment made up such a large share of a country’s economy and Household Consumption made up so little. In the past, China was able to export its surplus production to the rest of the world. Now, however, the global economy is too weak to continue absorbing more and more Chinese exports every year. Moreover, trade tensions are rising dramatically. The political backlash against free trade and against the negative consequences of Globalization is threatening to overthrow the pro-free market political establishment in the United States and across Europe. China is not going to be able to continue to Invest more than it Consumes by dumping the surplus abroad. In 2015, China’s exports fell by 9%. Chinese policymakers have said they will change China’s economic growth model so that, going forward, the economy will be driven by Consumption instead of Investment. But, that won’t be possible. Median personal disposable income in China is only US$8.13 per person per day. That means income is far too low to support a transition to Consumption-driven growth. Instead, China is more likely to find itself following the Japanese model of the past 26 years, one that relies on large government budget deficits and surging government debt. Deficit spending has kept Japan from collapsing into a Great Depression since its economic bubble popped in 1990. China appears to have few other options but to follow the Japan example if it is to keep its economy from spiraling into crisis.
  • China’s Economic Crisis, Part 3: The Risks Of Chinese QE

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 377
    Downloads: 0
    China’s economic growth engine is fuelled by extraordinarily large amounts of credit. In 2015, it took RMB 15.4 trillion (US$2.4 trillion) of credit growth to generate RMB 4.1 trillion (US$631 billion) of economic growth. In this video, the third in a series on the economic crisis now unfolding in China, we consider how much new credit growth will be required to keep China’s economy growing. The amounts are staggering. If credit were to continue to grow at the 2015 growth rate of 12.6% a year, the equivalent of US$17 trillion would be lent out over the next five years. Credit growth on that scale would be very difficult to finance and even more difficult to invest profitably. In the past, China relied on its trade surplus and on foreign direct investment to fund its credit expansion. Last year, however, there was massive capital flight out of China for the first time in modern history. That caused liquidity conditions to tighten.
  • China’s Economic Crisis: Part 2, The Colossal Boom (1990 – 2014)

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 397
    Downloads: 0
    Chinese Investment increased 50-fold between 1990 and 2014. Investment (i.e. Gross Fixed Capital Formation or GFCF) in China grew from US$92 billion in 1990 to US$4.6 trillion in 2014. During the last 25 years in China: - The Gross Output Value of Construction increased by 134 times, growing at an average annual rate of 21%. - Building Area Under Construction increased by 33 times, at an average annual rate of 15%. - Steel Production increased by 12 times, at an average rate of 11% growth per year. Consequently, China now has 50% of global steel capacity. - Cement Production increased 12-fold, growing by an average annual rate of 11%. During just three years (2011 to 2013), China produced more cement than the United States did during the entire 20th Century. China now has 59% of global cement capacity.
  • The China Crisis Series (Part One)

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 383
    Downloads: 0
    China’s economy resembles a spinning top that is running out of momentum. It is wobbling and gyrating erratically. A stock market crash, diminishing returns on credit, a plunge in imports, capital flight and currency volatility are all signs that China’s great economic boom is now coming to an end. In all probability, this is just the beginning of what is likely to be a very protracted economic slump. Today I have uploaded the first in a series of Macro Watch videos that will explain the nature of the economic crisis now unfolding in China. The Chinese “miracle” was fuelled by extraordinarily rapid credit growth over the last 25 years. This video describes how that credit was financed. By analyzing China’s Balance Of Payments and the policies of the People’s Bank Of China, it identifies the sources of the money that financed the boom. The next video will show how that credit was used, or “where the money went”. The third video in the series will discuss the two insurmountable constraints that are bringing Chinese growth to an end. China’s economy need not collapse into a Chinese Great Depression to produce a global economic crisis, although the possibility of economic collapse in China cannot be ruled out. The 17% contraction in Chinese imports last year was already enough to tip the global economy into recession. The consequences of this economic hard landing in China will be felt in ever corner of the world.
  • Frank Answers To Tough Questions: Free McAlvany Podcast

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 393
    Downloads: 0
    My friend David McAlvany interviewed me for the highly respected McAlvany Weekly Commentary a few days ago. It was a great conversation. He asked me a series of excellent, tough questions. You will find many of my answers more frank than usual – in part, because some of them were given after I thought the mic had been turned off. The interview was better as a result. We covered a wide range of important topics: - The great Dollar Standard Boom & Bust Cycle behind the current global economic crisis - The details of China’s economic Hard Landing (as discussed in the recent 5-video Macro Watch series) - The exhaustion of Creditism – in the US and around the world - Why schools of economic thought developed in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries do not provide the solution to our 21st century economic crisis - A modern strategy to achieve unprecedented prosperity Investing successfully in a world where asset prices float on an ocean of fiat money
  • Chimerica In Crisis

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 408
    Downloads: 0
    Chimerica is a term coined by the historian Niall Ferguson in 2006 to describe the economic relationship between the United States and China. Ferguson wrote: “Think of the United States and the People’s Republic not as two countries, but as one: Chimerica. It’s quite a place: just 13% of the world’s land surface, but a quarter of its population and fully a third of its economic output.” Indeed, looked at this way, Chimerica is the greatest economic superpower the world has ever known. Chimerican GDP is now $28 trillion – 36% of world GDP. Total credit in Chimerica is more than $85 trillion and Chimerican central bank assets are nearly $10 trillion. Without question, Chimerica has transformed the world. Chimerica is now on the brink of crisis, however. It is at risk of collapsing into a severe recession. If it does, the global ramifications will be devastating. The latest Macro Watch video (uploaded today) analyzes this US-Chinese relationship by considering: - What Chimerica is - How it emerged - Who has benefited and who has lost out because of Chimerica - How large it has become - How Chimerica was impacted by the crisis of 2008 - How it evolved afterwards - And why Chimerica is now falling into crisis
  • Forget Brexit, China’s The Real Crisis

    Source: Richard Duncan
    Date Submitted: 25 Aug 2016
    Views: 390
    Downloads: 0
    Brexit has been dominating the world’s business headlines during the past few weeks. But the impact of Brexit on the global economy is likely to be relatively minor compared with the coming fallout from the economic Hard Landing now underway in China. Macro Watch has just concluded a five-part series on China’s economic crisis. Today, I would like to make the first of those videos freely available to everyone who subscribes to this blog.
  • China Market Strategy: Consolidation

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 21 Aug 2016
    Views: 303
    Downloads: 8
    This article appear on WenXin's blog "Hong Hao China Strategy" on 22 August 2016. Chinese Version: https://www.arx.cfa/post/x-1709.html
  • 中国市场策略: 市场盘整

    Source: Hao Hong, CFA
    Date Submitted: 21 Aug 2016
    Views: 309
    Downloads: 18
    This article appear on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 22 August 2016.
  • FTSE Russell China Bond Research Report - June

    Source: FTSE Russell
    Date Submitted: 18 Aug 2016
    Views: 500
    Downloads: 0
    FTSE Russell's China Fixed Income Research Paper on the market overview, development of the onshore bond market, regulatory updates, onshore/offshore convergence and other related topics.
  • Preparing for China’s inclusion in global benchmarks - A flexible approach to managing the transition

    Source: FTSE Russell
    Date Submitted: 15 Aug 2016
    Views: 690
    Downloads: 0
    China has shown strong indications that it is willing to open its market to international investors. The approval of QFII/RQFII licenses and quota has been increasing at a tremendous pace since 2011. The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme last year and the recent confirmation of a stocktrading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong by the China’s State Council, has shown clear evidence that the Chinese regulators and stock exchanges are making significant efforts to improve the regulatory environment and trading mechanisms. An increasing number of investors are asking questions such as: When will China be included in global benchmarks? What can investors do to prepare for a possible inclusion? This paper aims to answer these questions and is intended for market participants as they prepare for China inclusion in FTSE’s global benchmarks. Section 1 and 2 describe the development of the China A-shares market and the milestones towards its globalization. The FTSE country classification system and the assessment results on China are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 outlines FTSE Russell’s solution to the China A-shares market changes. Conclusions can be found in Section 5.
  • Pakistan Market - 2015 Performance

    Source: Saad Hashemy
    Date Submitted: 12 Aug 2016
    Views: 366
    Downloads: 8
    Overview of the Pakistan capital market performance in 2015, and the underlying reasons for the performance.
  • Fintech Survey Report PPT 2016

    Source: Alan Lok, CFA
    Date Submitted: 29 Jul 2016
    Views: 834
    Downloads: 113
    Fintech Survey PPT 2016
  • Fintech Survey Report 2016

    Source: CFA Institute
    Date Submitted: 29 Jul 2016
    Views: 348
    Downloads: 17
    Global Fintech Survey Report executed on April 2016.
  • CIBT Education Group Inc. (TSX: MBA) – Q3 Update: Positioning to Capitalize on the Tight Vancouver Rental Market

    Source: Sid Rajeev, CFA
    Date Submitted: 28 Jul 2016
    Views: 260
    Downloads: 3
    Fundamental Research Corp is issuing an update “CIBT Education Group Inc. (TSX: MBA) – Q3 Update: Positioning to Capitalize on the Tight Vancouver Rental Market ” in a report dated July 21, 2016. The full report is now at www.researchfrc.com. MBA is an FRC Top Pick
  • The Middle Path to Growth: Riding the Wave of India’s Mid-Segment

    Source: Arj Wignaraja, Rafi Musher
    Date Submitted: 26 Jul 2016
    Views: 306
    Downloads: 3
    India’s industrial landscape has been dominated by a powerful host of conglomerates–the Tatas and the Reliances–that have steered india’s rapid growth and technological advancement in the past couple of decades. However, just beneath these lies an informal web of small and medium-scaled subcontractors, micro-enterprise operators and third-party manufacturers; really garage businesses. As these firms in India’s mid-segment pass generational hands, a deep set of opportunities arise. The current owners—usually the second or third in line of ownership—frequently do not have the manual expertise or talents that their founders did, and are turning to technological systems to optimize production. This shift in mindset and increase in technology spend among the mid-segment will generate the next wave of growth in India.
  • A Review of Activities and Trends in China's Wealth Management and Mutual Fund Industry

    Source: Shanghai Vstone Asset Management Co. Ltd
    Date Submitted: 22 Jul 2016
    Views: 426
    Downloads: 9
    A Review of Activities and Trends in China's Wealth Management and Mutual Fund Industry
  • A-Share turbulence, not all bad for China Economy

    Source: WeiYong Gu, CFA
    Date Submitted: 17 Jul 2016
    Views: 264
    Downloads: 2
    This is a research report published by UCON Investments in August 2015.
  • The Effects of Political Uncertainty on Financial Markets

    Source: Asjeet S. Lamba
    Date Submitted: 14 Jul 2016
    Views: 239
    Downloads: 4
    This is a presentation made to members of the CFA Society Melbourne on 14 July 2016.
  • 跨境资本流动才是 金融危机的罪魁祸首

    Source: Nathan Jaye, CFA
    Date Submitted: 13 Jul 2016
    Views: 216
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute Hedge Fund Journal 2016 issue, season 1.
  • 从国外见闻看国内投资机会 || 小钱频道

    Source: 黄凡, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jul 2016
    Views: 287
    Downloads: 1
    This article is published on 6 July 2016.
  • A Tale of Two Consequences: Intended and Unintended Outcomes of the Japan TOPIX Tick Size Changes

    Source:
    Date Submitted: 03 Jul 2016
    Views: 413
    Downloads: 0
    A few non-technical highlights are: 1. Topics explored include: The Venue Menu and How to Increase Revenue; To Automate or Not to Automate; Microstructure under the Microscope; The Price of Connections to High (and Faraway) Places; Speed Thrills but Kills; Pick a Size for the Perfect Tick; TSE Tick Size Experiments, Then and Now; Sergey Bubka and the Regulators; Bird’s Eye View; Deep Dive; Possibilities for a Deeper Dive; Does Tick Size Matter? Tick Size Does Matter! 2. The more that shoppers shop, the more shops there will be and the more the shops will try to woo the shoppers. 3. If people are willing to pay (or bid) more than what is asked (or offered), then perhaps, we would not have specialized venues to trade, a small price to pay for, let us just say, peace on Earth. 4. The Bid-Offer spread can be a barometer to a civilization's progress, till it becomes irrelevant, indicating that a society has transcended beyond mere material matters of accumulating and allocating wealth. 5. An exchange, as the word implies, is the process during which people give and take things of similar value. At a place where this transfer happens, also an exchange, shares or holdings can be liquidated and hence the primary mission of an exchange is to provide liquidity. For this discussion, we ignore the exchange of OTC (Over The Counter) securities, which are traded wherever, whenever and however one can trade them; but we leave the reader with the analogy that if Exchange Trading is similar to collecting tolls on a road; OTC Trading is like highway robbery. 6. Market microstructure is the investigation of the process and protocols that govern the exchange of assets with the objective of reducing frictions that can impede the transfer. In financial markets, where there is an abundance of recorded information, this translates to ... 7. We study the mechanisms that affect how securities are traded on an exchange, before delving into the tick size changes on the TOPIX 100 index names made by the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) on Jan-14-2014 and Jul-22-2104. The intended consequence of the TSE change is price improvement and shorter time to execution. An unintended effect might be the reduction in execution sizes, which would then mean that institutions with large orders would have greater difficulty in sourcing liquidity. Related Articles: http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jot.2016.11.3.081 http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jot.2014.9.3.042
  • Hong Kong - Shanghai Connect / Hong Kong - Beijing Disconnect (?) Scaling the Great Wall of Chinese Securities Trading Costs

    Source:
    Date Submitted: 03 Jul 2016
    Views: 458
    Downloads: 0
    A few non-technical highlights are: 1. This article provides an in-depth analysis of Trading Costs in both Shanghai and Hong Kong in the run up to the “Connect” program, which was launched on November 17, 2014 to link the stock exchanges in the two cities, arguably the biggest event in international business and finance since Christopher Columbus set sail for India. 2. We design a novel methodology that compensates for the lack of data on trading costs in China and utilizes a fundamentally different model of trading costs. 3. A Recipe for the Skeptics: • We compare the two markets by estimating trading costs across similar positions on the dual listed set of securities in Hong Kong and China. • We establish the accuracy of our measurements by comparing actual and estimated trading costs on a sample of real orders across the Hong Kong securities in the dual listed pair. 4. While the proximate intention behind this scheme could be to increase the trading of securities and bolster the equity markets in China, the fundamental reasoning could be to liberalize the financial system and spur economic growth, which has fallen sharply from the double digit rates of the recent past. 5. Whether this is part of a bigger scheme to financially join the two economies and aid greater political unification is a matter to be studied over the next few decades. 6. It would be interesting to see if this pioneering policy will lead to securities exchanges across the globe linking up one another, creating a trade anything, anywhere and anytime marketplace. 7. Looking beyond mere trading costs, such studies can be used to gather some evidence on what effect the mode of governance and other aspects of life in one country have on another country, once they start joining up their financial markets. Related Articles: http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jot.2015.10.4.051 http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jot.2014.9.3.042
  • Shanghai Express: Will the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Be a Transformational Breakthrough?

    Source: Sherree DeCovny
    Date Submitted: 29 Jun 2016
    Views: 273
    Downloads: 0
    This article appear on CFA Institute Magazine Nov/Dec 2014.
  • Dividend-Price Ratios and Stock Returns: International Evidence

    Source: Bradford Cornell
    Date Submitted: 28 Jun 2016
    Views: 602
    Downloads: 0
    The Gordon growth formula can be written in the form of the dividend–price ratio as (Dt/P0) = R – g, under the assumptions that future dividends will grow at a constant rate (i.e., g) forever and that the expected returns on equity (i.e., R) will never change. The ability of this ratio to predict future returns is a question of widespread debate among both academics and market participants because some believe that the dividend–price ratio is a predictor of future dividend growth. Empirical research has revealed that the dividend–price ratio can forecast future returns because the ratio is high when expected returns are likely to be high and vice versa. But as the author hypothesized in previous work, the relationship is dependent on the volatility of real dividend growth.
  • Generous Profits - Social enterprise investing blurs traditional lines between business and charity

    Source: Peter Shadbolt
    Date Submitted: 27 Jun 2016
    Views: 370
    Downloads: 0
    This article appeared on CFA Institute Magazine Jan/Feb 2014.
  • Better Credit Metrics for Emerging Markets

    Source: David Smith, CFA
    Date Submitted: 27 Jun 2016
    Views: 529
    Downloads: 0
    This article appeared on CFA Institute Magazine Nov/Dec 2014.
  • Weekend Reads for Global Investors: What Drove Chinese Stocks Up 128% Last Year?

    Source: Larry Cao, CFA
    Date Submitted: 27 Jun 2016
    Views: 375
    Downloads: 0
    This article appeared on CFA Institute's website on 29 May 2015.
  • Which Nation Will Drive Global Growth in 2016?

    Source: Larry Cao, CFA
    Date Submitted: 27 Jun 2016
    Views: 375
    Downloads: 0
    This blog appeared on CFA Institute's website on 10 December 2015.
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership: Brave New World or Geopolitical Maneuver?

    Source: Larry Cao, CFA
    Date Submitted: 24 Jun 2016
    Views: 251
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 8 October 2015.
  • 又被“割韭菜”,难道你不该听听我的分析?

    Source: 黄凡, CFA
    Date Submitted: 21 Jun 2016
    Views: 305
    Downloads: 1
    This article is published on 17 May 2016.
  • Elephant vs. Dragon: The Political and Economic Prospects of India and China

    Source: Gregg S. Fisher, CFA
    Date Submitted: 21 Jun 2016
    Views: 368
    Downloads: 3
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 9 July 2014.
  • A New Investment Thesis for China

    Source: CK Lee, CFA
    Date Submitted: 20 Jun 2016
    Views: 385
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 12 March 2012.
  • Premature Selling Is Tough but Beneficial

    Source: A. Michael Lipper, CFA
    Date Submitted: 19 Jun 2016
    Views: 254
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 17 June 2014.
  • Upside Volatility Is Rising, along with Fixed-Income Leverage

    Source: A. Michael Lipper, CFA
    Date Submitted: 19 Jun 2016
    Views: 251
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 12 November 2014.
  • Seven Reasons Active Management Underperformed in 2015

    Source: A. Michael Lipper, CFA
    Date Submitted: 17 Jun 2016
    Views: 248
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 19 January 2016
  • 谢清海:成功基金经理的7大技能

    Source: 谢清海
    Date Submitted: 17 Jun 2016
    Views: 283
    Downloads: 5
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 投资要引入政局博弈论

    Source: Brian Singer
    Date Submitted: 17 Jun 2016
    Views: 299
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 迈伦·斯科尔斯的全球经济展望

    Source: 迈伦·斯科尔斯
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 292
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 人口年龄与投资回报

    Source: Susan Trammel
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 385
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 资产定价:两个交易日的不同故事

    Source: Pavel Savor, Mungo Wilson
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 252
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 领会夏普和马克维茨!

    Source: Laurence B. Siegel
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 438
    Downloads: 3
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 蜂群和蜜蜂 仿生学能否改进投资决策?

    Source: Nathan Jaye
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 253
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 书写亚洲增长故事的下一篇章

    Source: Nick Ronalds, CFA
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 229
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2015 issue, season 1.
  • 投资者对金融市场的信任和信心

    Source: Laureen Leung, CFA
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 292
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 2.
  • 股票市场驱动力:基本面还是技术性因数

    Source: Tom Biwer, CFA, Brian Jacobsen, CFA, Adam Kurkiewicz, CFA
    Date Submitted: 16 Jun 2016
    Views: 367
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 2.
  • 外国投资者如何影响本国经济活动

    Source: Chotibhak Jotikasthira, CFA, Christian Lundblad, Tarun Ramadorai
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 339
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 2.
  • 高频交易的应对之道

    Source: Larry Harris, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 290
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 2.
  • 中国信用市场的投资机会

    Source: 李向辉, CFA, FRM, CAIA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 423
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 2.
  • 可持续性发展 ̶̶ 站在投资角度上

    Source: Charlie Henneman, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 230
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute's official website: http://annual.cfainstitute.org/2013/05/25/sustainability-an-investment-perspective/
  • 书评:《在音乐停止以后: 金融危机、当前应对及未来任务》

    Source: Martin S. Fridson, CFA, Michael A. Martorelli, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 260
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute's official website: http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/full/10.2469/br.v8.n1.15
  • 生命周期投资: 金融教育及消费者保护

    Source: Zvi Bodie, Laurence B. Siegel, Lisa Stanton, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 291
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute's official website: http://cfainstitute.org/learning/products/publications/contributed/privatewealth/Documents/rf_summary_life_cycle_investing.pdf
  • 期待基金在亚洲可跨境营销

    Source: 梁慧芝, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 254
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2.
  • 维护消费者对金融业的信任

    Source: 梁慧芝, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 284
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2.
  • 对冲基金受益于透明度提升

    Source: 梁慧芝, CFA
    Date Submitted: 15 Jun 2016
    Views: 263
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2.
  • 亚洲金融改革: 金融行业必须从操纵经济 转向为实体经济服务的角色

    Source: Samuel Lum, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 243
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute's official website: http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2013/05/22/financial-reform-in-asia-sector-must-shift-from-master-to-servant-of-realeconomy/
  • 全球债券的新时代: 你所知道的都是错的

    Source: Jason Voss, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 277
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute's official website: http://annual.cfainstitute.org/2013/05/21/new-erafor-global-bonds-everything-you-know-is-wrong/
  • 中国观察家法瑟·侯伟: 经济改革将继续缓慢推进

    Source: Samuel Lum, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 274
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2.
  • CFA协会年会过半专家: 发达国家未来10年 股票回报率 5%~10%之间

    Source: Jennifer Curry
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 264
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2. The original article appears on CFA Institute official website: http://annual.cfainstitute.org/2013/05/21/audience-poll-investment-pros-and-cfacharterholders- weigh-in-on-future-of-asset-management/
  • 2013年 中国宏观经济市场剖析

    Source: 祝宝良
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 271
    Downloads: 3
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 2.
  • 明星分析师揭示 更多公司具体信息? ̶̶来自中国的证据

    Source: Nianhang Xu, Kam C. Chan, CFA, Xuanyu Jiang, Zhihong Yi
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 276
    Downloads: 0
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • 孙志鹏:债券市场潜力无限

    Source: 张佳昺, CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 334
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • 大格局判断与宏观投资

    Source: 刘海影,CFA
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 297
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • 前沿市场股权投资: 寻找未来的赢家

    Source: Lawrence Speidell
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 455
    Downloads: 3
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • 资产管理的前景 标志性的趋势预示着未来

    Source: Maha Khan Phillips
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 370
    Downloads: 2
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • 市场和投资的经验之谈

    Source: Eugene F. Fama
    Date Submitted: 14 Jun 2016
    Views: 250
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2013 issue, season 1.
  • Market Microstructure: The Impact of Fragmentation under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive

    Source: CFA Institute
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2016
    Views: 310
    Downloads: 2
    This paper appeared on CFA Institute's website in December 2009.
  • Dark Pools, Internalization, and Equity Market Quality

    Source: Rhodri Preece, CFA
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2016
    Views: 286
    Downloads: 2
    This paper appeared on CFA Institute's website in October 2012
  • Shadow Banking: Policy Frameworks and Investor Perspectives on Markets-Based Finance

    Source: Rhodri G. Preece, CFA
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2016
    Views: 273
    Downloads: 1
    This paper appeared on CFA Institute in April 2015.
  • European Capital Markets Union

    Source: Maiju Hamunen
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2016
    Views: 267
    Downloads: 1
    This paper appeared on CFA Institute in August 2015.
  • Liquidity in Equity Markets: Characteristics, Dynamics, and Implications for Market Quality

    Source: Sviatoslav Rosov, CFA
    Date Submitted: 12 Jun 2016
    Views: 259
    Downloads: 0
    This paper appeared on CFA Institute's website in August 2015.
  • Equity Research Report -RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited

    Source: Mohammad Asrarul Haque
    Date Submitted: 11 Jun 2016
    Views: 561
    Downloads: 65
    Fundamental Analysis and Equity Research Report on RAK Ceramics (Bangladesh) Limited.
  • SoMoClo Technologies: Transforming how and where business takes place

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 10 Jun 2016
    Views: 319
    Downloads: 6
    While social, mobile and cloud technologies (‘SoMoClo’) offer great opportunities to continue the automation of processes, SoMoClo should not be seen simply as more automation. Nor is it merely about ‘mobilising’ or ‘socialising’ existing processes and putting them in the cloud. Instead, SoMoClo provokes a revisiting and questioning of all processes, which may have evolved in response to constraints that no longer exist. SoMoClo will be a crucial driver to evolving the role of the finance professional.
  • Tomorrow’s finance enterprise

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 10 Jun 2016
    Views: 420
    Downloads: 3
    In this report we ask a simple question: what are the key influences shaping the future role of the CFO and tomorrow’s finance enterprise? The report draws on all of our ongoing CFO-focused research and includes highlights of a 2014 survey of 1631 ACCA and IMA members around the world
  • Increasing Gender Diversity to Boost Performance: A briefing for finance and HR leaders

    Source: ACCA
    Date Submitted: 10 Jun 2016
    Views: 308
    Downloads: 3
    This paper presents the value of gender diversity in business. It aims to help CFOs, senior finance professionals and HR professionals working alongside finance teams, to understand the value of gender diversity and make the business case for diversity to their peers.
  • China's Next 100 Global Giants

    Source: Hunag Q.H., Atherton, A., Zhan, G.
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 446
    Downloads: 7
    A growing number of Chinese businesses are moving from dominance of domestic markets to global growth. This report identifies 100 emerging businesses that are not yet well known outside China but will be competing globally over the next three to five years.
  • Low Prices, High Expectations: Oil and Gas CFOs in Demand

    Source: ACCA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 1590
    Downloads: 17
    This report takes a closer look at how CFOs are tackling the big investment decisions: how they are adapting their funding strategies, how they balance short- and long-term priorities, and how they factor into their planning a range of shifting regulatory and market demands.
  • Natural capital and the accountancy profession: applying traditional skills to new thinking and practice

    Source: Jackson, R., Wilson, G., Herbertson, P., Adams, C., Gould, S.
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 296
    Downloads: 4
    This paper focuses on the role that accountants are playing in the development of thinking, practice and frameworks for accounting for and reporting on natural capital by businesses.
  • Innovation, Intangibles and Integrated Reporting: A pilot study of Malaysian SMEs

    Source: Brassell, M, Reid, B.
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 477
    Downloads: 5
    This report presents the results of a pilot project, which tests the relevance of the Malaysian National Corporate Innovation Index to small and medium-sized enterprises.
  • Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q1, 2016

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 482
    Downloads: 8
    The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the largest regular economic survey in the world in respect to respondents and the range of economic variables monitored. Its main indices are good predictors of such factors as GDP growth and daily trend deviations correlating with VIX (or ‘fear’ index), which measures expected stock price volatility. Fieldwork for the Q1 2016 GECS took place between 26 February and 15 March 2015, and attracted over 1,200 responses.
  • Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q4, 2015

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 391
    Downloads: 5
    The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the largest regular economic survey in the world in respect to respondents and the range of economic variables monitored. Its main indices are good predictors of such factors as GDP growth and daily trend deviations correlating with VIX (or ‘fear’ index), which measures expected stock price volatility. Fieldwork for the Q1 2015 GECS took place between 27 November and 25 December 2015, and attracted over 2,500 responses.
  • Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q3, 2015

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 484
    Downloads: 4
    The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the largest regular economic survey in the world in respect to respondents and the range of economic variables monitored. Its main indices are good predictors of such factors as GDP growth and daily trend deviations correlating with VIX (or ‘fear’ index), which measures expected stock price volatility. Fieldwork for the Q1 2015 GECS took place between 11 September and 22 September 2015, and attracted over 950 responses.
  • Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2015

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 283
    Downloads: 3
    The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the largest regular economic survey in the world in respect to respondents and the range of economic variables monitored. Its main indices are good predictors of such factors as GDP growth and daily trend deviations correlating with VIX (or ‘fear’ index), which measures expected stock price volatility. Fieldwork for the Q2 2015 GECS took place between 29 May and 16 June 2015, and attracted over 950 responses.
  • Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q1, 2015

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 281
    Downloads: 3
    The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the largest regular economic survey in the world in respect to respondents and the range of economic variables monitored. Its main indices are good predictors of such factors as GDP growth and daily trend deviations correlating with VIX (or ‘fear’ index), which measures expected stock price volatility. Fieldwork for the Q1 2015 GECS took place between 27 February and 17 March 2015, and attracted over 900 responses.
  • The Data Revolution

    Source: ACCA, IMA
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 293
    Downloads: 3
    A joint ACCA/ICA study and related report developed to draw attention to on-going radical changes in the role of data to the accounting and finance professions that would impact on practitioners moving forward.
  • Stock market volatility around national elections

    Source: Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., Wisniewski, T.P.
    Date Submitted: 09 Jun 2016
    Views: 597
    Downloads: 0
    This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the country-specific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an election, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a government with parliamentary majority significantly contribute to the magnitude of the election shock. Furthermore, some evidence is found that markets with short trading history exhibit stronger reaction. Our findings have important implications for the optimal strategies of institutional and individual investors who have direct or indirect exposure to volatility risk.
  • Political orientation of government and stock market returns

    Source: Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., Wisniewski, T.P
    Date Submitted: 08 Jun 2016
    Views: 577
    Downloads: 0
    Prior research documented that the US stock prices tend to grow faster during the Democratic than the Republican administrations. This article examines whether stock returns in other countries also depend on the political orientation of the incumbents. An analysis of 24 stock markets and 173 different governments reveals that there are no statistically significant differences in returns between left-wing and right-wing executives. Consequently, international investment strategies based on the political orientation of countries’ leadership are likely to be futile.
  • Mapping the Sustainability Reporting Landscape: Lost in the right direction

    Source: Lois Guthrie
    Date Submitted: 08 Jun 2016
    Views: 340
    Downloads: 5
    This report explores the changing corporate sustainability reporting landscape, outlines its components, addresses current challenges and proposes development opportunities. It provides a considered overview of the trends, levers and drivers influencing the reporting landscape. It also proposes ideas to prompt discussion among professionals involved in reporting who seek standardisation, rationalisation and order.
  • HFT Strategies: Why the Sudden Fuss over Speed Advantages?

    Source: Tony Tan, DBA, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 257
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 2 June 2014.
  • What Early Results on Australian and Canadian Trade-at Rules Mean for Regulation

    Source: Sviatoslav Rosov, PhD, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 258
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 7 January 2015.
  • Australian Review: HFT and Dark Trading Don’t Merit Further Regulation

    Source: Sviatoslav Rosov, PhD, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 285
    Downloads: 1
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 16 November 2015.
  • From Bust to Boom: Southeast Asia’s Capital Markets Getting It Right This Time

    Source: Paul Smith, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 443
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 16 April 2013.
  • Wanted: Asian Institutional Investors to Curb Short-Termism

    Source: Paul Smith, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 239
    Downloads: 1
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 14 January 2014.
  • Déjà vu: South Korean Banking Crisis Hits Again

    Source: Padma Venkat, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 299
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 28 June 2012.
  • What Is the Future of Financial Exchanges? (Video)

    Source: Padma Venkat, CFA
    Date Submitted: 07 Jun 2016
    Views: 280
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 23 April 2013. Video can be played in the Reference UFL below.
  • 2014年中国经济希望与阵痛

    Source: 徐彪
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 292
    Downloads: 1
    This article appears on CFA Institute hedge fund journal 2014 issue, season 1.
  • CorpGov Roundup: Hermes EOS Hire Signals Serious Reform Business in Japan

    Source: Matt Orsagh, CFA, CIPM
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 363
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 6 April 2016.
  • Dark Pools in Asia Pacific — Watch This Space

    Source: Lee Kha Loon
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 276
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 22 August 2011.
  • 2014 Market Outlook for Asia Pacific: When Diversity Strengthens Advocacy

    Source: Laurel Teo
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 274
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 18 December 2013.
  • ASEAN as a Single Market: What, When, How, and Really?

    Source: Laurel Teo
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 347
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 21 June 2015.
  • Asia Pacific Market Outlook: Strong Growth, More Even Playing Field for Investors in 2015

    Source: Laruel Teo
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 231
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 15 January 2015
  • Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, Among Others, Forced Away from Fixed Income

    Source: Alexander Flatscher
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 385
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 23 October 2012.
  • Southeast Asia’s Emerging Securities Market Breaks Down Barriers for Investors but Presents Own Challenges

    Source: Alexander Flatscher
    Date Submitted: 06 Jun 2016
    Views: 270
    Downloads: 0
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 16 December 2012.
  • The Impact of Population Dynamics on the Chinese Capital Markets

    Source: Alan Lok
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 292
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 11 January 2015.
  • How Service Sector Needs and Shadow Banking Are Reshaping Chinese Capital Markets

    Source: Alan Lok
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 288
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 6 February 2015.
  • Are Tencent, Alibaba Innovators or a New Cog in the Chinese Regime?

    Source: Alan Lok
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 398
    Downloads: 5
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 12 February 2015.
  • To Reform Chinese Capital Market, Is Government ‘Cooking a Frog in Warm Water’?

    Source: Alan Lok
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 306
    Downloads: 2
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 14 May 2015.
  • Chinese Shadow Banking: Solution or Problem?

    Source: Alan Lok
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 283
    Downloads: 3
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 2 June 2015.
  • Lok Provides Key Differences in DJIA, S&P 500; Are Investments in Latter Diversified?

    Source: Alan Lok, CFA
    Date Submitted: 05 Jun 2016
    Views: 482
    Downloads: 3
    This is a blog posted on CFA Institute's website on 26 May 2016.