Lender moral hazard in state-owned banks: Evidence from an emerging economy

Joshy Jacob    Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, Joshy Jacob, Ajay Pandey
11 Feb 2019
Categories: General Market Analysis, Fixed Income, Regulatory changes, Corporate Finance

Country or region: India

India's public sector banks are more likely to lend to riskier firms than private sector banks. Their lending choices include riskier service sector firms, those that borrow by pledging promoter shares and those likely to be impacted by political change.

The paper was presented in the 2018 India Finance Conference held at Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India.
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We examine the credit risk choices of the public sector banks (PSBs) in India with a novel dataset that is able to trace the borrowers to their banks. We determine the likelihood of the ownership type of the lender bank associated with every firm, using a lender type prediction model with a set of observable risk proxies such as the ex-ante credit ratings. The analysis indicates that the PSBs are more likely to lend to observably risky firms compared to the private sector banks (PBs). The observed likelihood of lending to riskier firms is significantly higher among the smaller PSBs. The set of firms that majorly contribute to the higher credit-risk choice of the PSBs include the riskier service sector firms, firms that borrow by pledging promoter shares, and firms that are likely to be impacted by the change of political regime.

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