中国市场策略: 市场盘整

Categories: Macroeconomics, General Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

Country or region: China

Summary:
This article appear on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 22 August 2016.


Reference URL: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650861574&idx=1&sn=7df43b68525c453509f173cbf43f995c&scene=1&srcid=0822BGM3TmohoTX06RuknFci&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0#wechat_redirect




Abstract

美国和香港市场情绪同时趋向极端,暗示着短期内市场将进入整固阶段。今年美联储加息的概率已上升到50%,而耶伦即将发表演讲。抛硬币并不是一个赢面好的赌局,除非参与者有独特的优势。中国不太可能在短期内显著宽松。房价的暴涨和实际利率处于历史低位都约束着货币政策的选择。中国外占的下降早已预示了M2增速的放缓。如果市场暴跌不期而至,投资者应继续寻找在香港市场的长期配置机会。




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