【中国市场策略】鸡年大吉:顺流,逆流?

Categories: General Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

Country or region: Asia Pacific (Overall)

Summary:
This research appears on WenXin's blog "洪灝的中国市场策略" on 25 Jan 2017.


Abstract

创业板的长期上升趋势已被打破。这需要引起我们的注意。历史上,信用利差与大小盘股的相对表现密切相关。信用利差扩大之时,小盘股相对大盘股的表现则不佳。这说明市场已开始对公司质量的好坏区别对待。创业板的技术反弹很可能只停留在技术层面,其周期的大潮已经逆转。流动性收缩将凸显创业板估值的高昂。美国市场的等权重回报率和价格与息税折旧前利润的比率已见顶。这种现象在1998年亚洲金融风暴和俄罗斯违约、2000年互联网泡沫破灭和2007年底次贷危机开始、市场运行到历史大顶的时候,以及2015年中国市场泡沫破灭之时也曾出现。海外市场运行到了重要的阻力位。




Statistics
Total Views: 692
Total Downloads: 5

Share Article

Reader Comments

No comments made on this post yet

Note

If you have any copyright and other associated infringements related to this item, please click on the Terms and Conditions link where you will be directed to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DCMA) that will outline the procedure for raising your concern.

If you have any concerns with the content of the item [e.g., offensive language and/or material, inappropriate material] then please proceed to utilize the Contact Us form. Remember that when using the Contact Us form, please ensure you reference/cite clearly the item in question (e.g., name of article, author(s) of article) and the nature of the complaint.

Categories