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The Editor's selection of ARX posts discussing the impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic on the markets and the global economy.


Introduction

The impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic on the global markets and the world's economy is difficult to assess, but there is no doubt it will be felt in most economies and sectors for a long time. While the situation changes fast, investment managers must keep abreast of news, analyses and forecasts. We present a selection of relevant ARX posts that shed light on the economic effects of the pandemic. 


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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact and Risk Response Guide

This guide aims to provide insights into the impact of COVID-19. It gives general risk response guidance for companies to consider when deploying business continuity planning measures to combat the epidemic.

30 March 2020 | BDO: Ricky Cheng

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Guesstimating Unemployment in China

What is the real unemployment picture in China? Data analysis suggests that even though work resumption in big cities continues as COVID-19 infections ebb, urban unemployment is surging and will get worse. 

30 March 2020 | BOCOM International: Hao Hong, CFA

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WEBINAR: Bushfires and Coronavirus: Impact on Australian Credits and Economy

A webinar discusses the aftermath of the Australian bushfires on various sectors and the effect of the global spread of the coronavirus. The combination of the two is one of the worst "black swan" events of our time.

27 March 2020 | Fitch Ratings: Jeremy Zook, Tim Roche, Kanishka de Silva | Video: 35 min.

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China's Wealth Management Regulations Likely to Be Postponed

Industry analysts anticipate that the Chinese regulators will take an accommodative approach in pushing through reforms in the wealth management product market in the remainder of 2020 as COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc across the economy.

27 March 2020 | Pengyuan International: Stanley Tsai, Tony Tang

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全球疫情和美元荒背景下中资美元债风险

随着新冠疫情在全球快速蔓延,众多行业瞬间停摆,全球经济正在面临二战以来最严重的衰退。金融和经济密不可分,全球金融体系也正遭遇雷曼危机以来的最大冲击,欧洲和美国股市已经分别暴跌40%和30%,但金融体系面临的真正挑战,是如何应对由于经济停摆所造成的流动性短缺、急剧上升的违约风险和对信贷资源的挤兑。

27 March 2020 | 野村证券中国首席经济学家 陆挺 CFA, 野村证券中国经济学家 王立升

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Insights into the Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Epidemic: ACCA Economic Briefing

The measures introduced by governments to slow the spread of COVID-19 are having a dramatic effect on economic activity. As the global economy is heading into a severe recession, ACCA’s chief economist, Michael Taylor, presents latest insights.

24 March 2020 | ACCA: Michael Taylor

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Coronavirus and Oil Price Shock Magnify Weaknesses in Negative 2020 Outlook

Shocks of the coronavirus outbreak and the sharp fall in oil prices are exposing sovereigns' vulnerabilities: lower GDP growth and fiscal strength, deeper vulnerability to investor sentiment shifts,  wider weaknesses in key institutions.

20 March 2020 | Moody's Investors Service: Sarah Carlson, Marie Diron

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ESG Evaluation of SSE 50 Index Constituent Stocks on Epidemic Control

An analysis of a company’s behavior under an emergency such as the COVID-19 epidemic helps evaluate its resilience. The ESG Epidemic Control Valuation model developed by SynTao Green Finance serves as a supplement to the overall ESG assessment.

20 March 2020 | SynTao Green Finance

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Coronavirus and Oil Price Shocks: Managing Ratings in Turbulent Times

The rapid spread of the coronavirus, deteriorating economic outlook, lower oil and asset prices have severe, extensive and unprecedented credit effects across many sectors, regions and markets.

17 March 2020 | Moody's Investors Service: Anne Van Praagh, Marie Diron

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Fighting COVID-19, Chinese Style

As the world fights COVID-19, governments’ resolve and monetary easing will induce technical rebound in the near term, although the market will probably retest its prior low. But the longer-term economic outlook is turning increasingly clouded.

15 March 2020 | BOCOM International: Hao Hong, CFA

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Measuring Coronavirus Impact on China from the Sky

MioTech uses satellite imagery to find proxy variables of economic activities in China. Inspecting land surface temperature and nitrogen dioxide emissions makes it possible to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on economic activities in China.

13 March 2020 | MioTech: Jason Tu, Gingery Jin, Maya Li

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) - What it Means For Investors

Market fear over escalating global spread of coronavirus has seen a sell-off across many asset classes. The Australian market moved ahead of overseas markets in response to the outbreak. What does it mean for investment portfolios?

13 March 2020 | Perpetual Limited: Kyle Lidbury | Video: 7 min

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Business Challenges and Considerations for the COVID-19 Outbreak

As COVID-19 impacts business activities, the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) has conducted a survey of its members in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR to understand the challenges companies face as a result of the epidemic.

9 March 2020 | ACCA Global: Eunice Chu, Yuki Qian

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WEBINAR: Coronavirus Contagion – A Market Assessment

In this webinar, Philip Lawlor, managing director, global markets research discusses the impact of the coronavirus on market returns and gauges its effect on the global economy, the credit cycle and market drivers, such as profits and valuations.

5 March 2020 | FTSE Russell | Video: 26 min.

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COVID-19: Chinese Local Government Creditworthiness Risks Mounting

Chinese local governments’ budgetary deficits are likely to rise to an all-time high in 2020 amid slower economic growth and additional fiscal stimulus measures. The COVID-19 epidemic is likely to hurt Hubei’s economy the hardest.

4 March 2020 | Pengyuan International: Jameson Zuo, Li Hu, Tony Tang

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对当前疫情影响下中国金融市场情况浅析

本⽂旨在利⽤⾦融市场数据分析和总结新冠病毒对中国股票市场,债劵市场及外汇市场带来的短期波动。 疫情发⽣以来中国⾦融市场包括债券市场、股票市场、外汇市场运⾏都是⽐较稳定的,⾦融机构运⾏正常,我们可以发现中国⾦融体系在应对⻛险⽅⾯具备较强韧性。从⾦融市场的运⾏情况也可以看到,投资者对于这次疫情认为是阶段性的,不会影响经济⻓期向好的基本⾯。同时,疫情过后经济还会出现补偿性的增⻓。 本⽂不构成任何投资建议。

1 March 2020 | Jiahui Tao

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Impact of COVID-19 on China A-Shares’ Supply Chains

China is at the centre of the world’s production needs. As the country continues to grapple with containing the contagion, production lines remain quiet, factories remain shut, and millions of workers are either displaced or restricted in movement.

29 February 2020 | MioTech: Jason Tu, Cara Liu, Maya Li

Download PDF: < English > < Chinese >


March Marks a Critical Point for China’s Economy

The full-year impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China’s economy may be determined by the country’s economic activity in March. An analysis of three possible scenarios informs the views on individual corporate sectors for the remainder of the year.

26 February 2020 | Pengyuan International: Tony Tang, Stanley Tsai, Ke Chen 

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COVID-19 Tests the Liquidity of Chinese Property Developers

The suspension of property sales in China will pressure developers’ liquidity in the short term and squeeze their profitability in the medium term. Their credit profiles will diverge, with small developers seeing their credit profiles deteriorate.

26 February 2020 | Pengyuan International: Winnie Guo, Xinping Lin, Simon Lee

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China’s Passenger Car Shipments Likely to See Further Drop Due to COVID-19

China’s demand for cars will shrink in the short term due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Factories need time to resume operations. The downturn in the car manufacturing industry will continue to affect the companies' credit profiles.

26 February 2020 | Pengyuan International: Danny Chen, Tian Shan, Zhang Weiya

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WEBINAR: Coronavirus - Refinancing Risks for Chinese Corporates

This webinar assesses the refinancing risk posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and identifies Chinese corporates that face elevated risk in relation to their capital market debt maturities.

24 February 2020 | Fitch Ratings: Buddhika Piyasena, Matt Jamieson, Kalai Pillay, Ying Wang, Adrian Cheng, Laura Zhai, Kelvin Ho | Video: 46 min.

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The Coronavirus Epidemic: Implications for Markets

The economic and market impacts of coronavirus may be much larger than those of the 2003 SARS virus. Why? China is a much bigger part of the global economy than it was 17 years ago.

12 February 2020 | MSCI: Zhen Wei, Head of China Research; Jun Wang, Vice President Equity Factor Modeling Research; Thomas Verbraken, Executive Director Risk Management Solutions Research

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Turning Point of the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Economic Cost of Quarantine

The coronavirus epidemic is at a turning point. The impact of the quarantine on the economic growth is slightly greater than our previous estimate. The distance between 2,500 and 2,685 is different for each trader.

10 February 2020 | BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited: Hao Hong, CFA

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Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on China's Market and Economy (PDF)

China’s introduction of measures to maintain stability has eased the bearish sentiment, as the market experienced a technical rebound after the sharp fall in the early February. Yet long-term forecasts predict GDP to fall below 6% in 2020.

7 February 2020 | BOCOM International Holdings Company Limited: Hao Hong, CFA

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About the Author(s)

ARX Editorial Team

Director: Scott Lee
Content manager, Editor: Piotr Zembrowski, CFA
Coordinator: Natalie Yiu

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